Sri Lanka's main parties contesting next week's elections have vowed to open talks with militant Tamil separatists, but fears of a factional war among the rebels and a persisting feud between the country's leaders have dimmed hopes of early negotiations.
Prime Minister Ranil Wick-remesinghe said the parliamentary election called nearly four years ahead of schedule placed a "big question mark" over the Norwegian-backed process to end the war that has claimed more than 60,000 lives since 1972.
He expressed hopes of reviving talks before the end of April if his United National party was returned to power in Friday's polls, which he has turned into a referendum on his peace initiative with the Tigers.
However, diplomats and officials close to the peace process say that even if Wickremesinghe wins, a split in the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) must be resolved before any negotiations can start.
Earlier this month a member of the Tigers' four-member peace negotiating team, V. Muralitharan, better known as Karuna, broke away from the organization, taking with him about a third of its fighting force.
On Friday, the Tigers vowed to get rid of their renegade regional commander, signalling an imminent showdown. Tiger supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran, 49, is known for his ruthless intolerance of dissent.
The Tigers' statement came a day after Wickremesinghe said in an interview that international donors who had pledged US$4.5 billion dollars in aid to rebuild Sri Lanka were keen that negotiations, stalled since April last year, should resume before May.
"The talks started with the LTTE on the basis that they have a rigid chain of command and Prabhakaran was in control of all his cadres," a western diplomat here said. "Now that assumption is no longer valid."
Until the break-up of the Tiger movement, it was a split in the Colombo government itself that peace-broker Norway had to contend with.
The election was called by President Chandrika Kumaratunga after her tense relationship with Wickremesinghe came to a head in November. After taking away the prime minister's control over troops in November, Kumaratunga sacked the legislature he controlled. Since then, Norway has to put its efforts on hold.
Norway's special peace envoy Erik Solheim, who held talks with Sri Lankan leaders as well as the main Tiger leadership this month, said Oslo was keeping out of the internal conflict in the LTTE.
Political analysts said that even if the Tigers resolved their differences and established Prabhakaran's supremacy, there was no guarantee of political stability after the elections.
The head of the political science department at Colombo University, Jayadeva Uyangoda, said the country was headed for a prolonged period of uncertainty as no party was expected to get a clear majority.
A victory for Kumaratunga's party would mean completely renegotiating terms of peace talks as her main coalition partner, the Marxist JVP or People Liberation Front, wants discussions based on "reasonable condition."
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