Israel's intelligence and military chiefs have told Ariel Sharon that Hamas is on the retreat in the wake of the assassination of its founder and spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. They have said that the organization no longer poses a major obstacle to the prime minister's plans to carve out a Palestinian state on his terms.
Intelligence officials have concluded that Hamas's failure to carry out its threat of bloody vengeance, nearly a week after the sheikh's assassination by a guided missile as he was wheeled from morning prayers, is evidence of its greatly reduced military capacity. They still expect an attack to come, but say Hamas is clearly having great difficulty launching it.
PHOTO: EPA
The thinking behind Israel's strategy, which drew international condemnation, has become clearer. Sheikh Yassin could have been killed at any time in the past three years, and the timing suggests motives beyond the prime minister's claim to have removed an arch- terrorist.
Israeli political analysts believe that the removal of such a towering figure, who was second only to Yasser Arafat in standing among Palestinians, diminishes Hamas as a political force and the prospects of it taking control of Gaza if Sharon follows through on his pledge to withdraw Jewish settlers.
The decision to kill the Hamas leader appears to have been prompted by a number of considerations. With Hamas claiming that the Israelis are retreating from Gaza in defeat, Sharon was determined that the pullout should not be seen as weakness under fire. He was also keen to placate the rightwing of his government, which is strongly opposed to removing the settlers from the Gaza Strip, by offering it Sheikh Yassin's head.
But there were also longer-term considerations voiced by the army chief of staff, Lieutenant General Moshe Ya'alon, who said that wiping out the Hamas leadership was designed to prevent the organization seizing power in the Gaza Strip after an Israeli pullout and turning it into "Hamas-land".
Officials say that is an important part of Sharon's plan for unilateral disengagement. "The government is not prepared to pull back from Gaza or parts of the West Bank and see them handed over to Hamas or any of the groups like it," said one senior official. "The plan for unilateral disengagement requires a strengthened Palestinian Authority and everything being thrown at Hamas by us is designed to help that, as well as to deal with the immediate issue of stopping terrorism."
Israel's finance minister and former prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, said the assassination might provoke a bloody response, but would bring long-term gains. "There could be harsh responses by Hamas ... in the short term. But in the long term Hamas will be constrained, because its leaders will know that they face the threat of assassination."
But some Israeli intelligence officials see it the other way around -- that there are short-term gains, but the longer term may see a revival in Hamas's fortunes. The Shin Bet says that the army's unrelenting pursuit of high- and mid-level Hamas commanders has greatly weakened the organization's ability to launch attacks. But there has never been a shortage of foot soldiers, intelligence officials say, and Sheikh Yassin's death may prompt a new flood of volunteers for suicide missions, or to join the street fighters in Gaza.
What Hamas lacks now are the expert bomb makers and planners who have been picked off in West Bank cities in the past months. The Shin Bet says that the higher proportion of attacks run jointly show each organization's diminishing capacity to launch operations on its own.
However, the Israeli military says there is evidence of a new generation of Hamas bomb-makers in Nablus.
Barry Rubin, director of Jerusalem's centre for global research in international affairs, said that the loss of Sheikh Yassin was a severe blow to Hamas because he drew support from far beyond the confines of the organization. He said the blow to Hamas was compounded by the choice of Abdel-Aziz-al-Rantissi as its new leader.
"Rantissi is not a strong figure, he's not a unifying figure. I don't think his authority is going to be accepted. He certainly doesn't have any religious stature. Hamas is factionalized with differing views on whether to work with the Palestinian Authority or not," he said.
"Hamas is not broken, but it is greatly weakened and its forward movement is stopped. It's a major setback for them and their ability to act strategically."
But Ghazi Hamed, editor of the Hamas newspaper, Al-Resala, says the Israelis misunderstand support for Hamas. "Support for Hamas is built on several things, but one of them is the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and the belief of many Palestinians that not only can it not defend them from the Israelis, but that it collaborates with the Israelis," he said. "Sharon's plans will weaken, not strengthen, the Palestinian Authority -- and that will strengthen Hamas."
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