Three days of Shiite protests struck fear in the hearts of Iraqi Kurds and Sunnis yesterday, as US special envoy James Baker persuaded Riyadh to scrap a "substantial" reduction of Iraq's bruising debt.
But Iraq's Sunni and Kurdish minorities were quick on the defensive as the country's 15-million Shiites made it clear they want to be in the driver's seat of power after enduring years of oppression under ousted ruler Saddam Hussein.
They staged a third straight day of protests Wednesday against US plans for a transfer of power in Iraq, as US and Iraqi leaders again snubbed their key demand for general elections before a scheduled June handover.
"The Shia want to make sure that they dominate; the sooner the elections, the sooner they will dominate," a high-ranking US-led coalition official said.
"It's raw politics."
Leading the beacon for the Shiites has been Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a cleric noted until now for his conservatism and aversion to politics.
In the coalition's eyes, the caucus process designed by it to select a transitional national assembly will inevitably wind up with a Shiite majority.
But faced with street protests and threats of greater troubles ahead, the coalition is looking to steer a middle course between the Shiite giant awakening from its long slumber and the weaker Sunnis and Kurds.
The Shiites' demands are "worrying to the Kurds and Sunnis," the official said. On Wednesday, Sunni religious leaders and Kurdish politicians rejected Shiite calls for early elections in Iraq.
"We cannot trust elections or any other power transfer plans as long as the occupation is in place and the people are not free," said the Committee of Iraqi Ulema, or religious scholars, which represents the sizeable Sunni minority, the country's power brokers under Saddam.
"The Kurdish group supports the principle of elections but is against them in current circumstances because of a number of obstacles and difficulties," said Mahmud Othman, one of five Kurds on the 25-member interim Governing Council.
But on the diplomatic front there was good news for Iraq's towering debt after Baker extracted a promise from Riyadh to negotiate a "substantial" reduction of the US$28 billion Baghdad owes to its neighbor.
In a four-nation tour, Baker won similar pledges from Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to write off most, or at least a substantial part of, Iraq's massive debt burden to the three oil-rich countries.
A US administration official, speaking anonymously, said OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia had "agreed that debt reduction must be substantial, and this is a significant step forward."
Meanwhile, it emerged Iraq's new army will be incapable of defending the country on its own for years because of the overwhelming cost of training and equipping such a force, said the US general in charge of training the force.
Major General Paul Eaton said it would take a minimum of three to five years to field an indigenous force capable of defending the country against attack -- and then only if spending on pressing social needs were sacrificed.
"I'm not going to be flippant here, but good, fast and cheap are three terms. You get two out of three," Eaton told a Baghdad news conference.
Although the general refused to comment on what coalition forces would be required to offset the shortfall in Iraqi military might, his comments suggested that foreign troops will be required to defend Iraq for years.
"This is a tough neighborhood, and three light infantry divisions do not provide and will not provide the end-state defensive requirements for the Iraqi ground forces," he said.
The New Iraqi Army is set to field 27 battalions, roughly 40,000 men, by the end of this year.
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