Thu, Nov 27, 2003 - Page 7 News List

N Ireland poll favors hardliners

AFP , BELFAST

A woman and child walk past a mural in Belfast on the eve of polling day on Tuesday. With the British and Irish governments looking for a resounding vote in favor of the Good Friday agreement, security chiefs believe dissident republicans plotting to wreck the peace process may target polling stations.

PHOTO: EPA

Voters in Northern Ireland were yesterday choosing new members of the recently peaceful province's local parliament, with pundits tipping hardliners on both sides of the sectarian divide to profit from a campaign marked by widespread public cynicism.

The 1.1 million electors will choose 108 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly, created in 1998 as part of the Good Friday agreement, which delivered the British territory from 30 years of bloodshed.

But since the heady days of the peace deal and the creation of an unprecedented semi-autonomous government grouping parties from all spectrums of Catholic and Protestant views, optimism and co-operation alike have flagged.

Just over a year ago London suspended the assembly after a total breakdown of relations in the legislature following the discovery of a spy ring linked to the Irish Republican Army (IRA).

That breach has yet to be repaired, meaning that there is little chance of any of the newly-elected assembly representatives doing any meaningful work in the foreseeable future.

"Whatever happens on Wednesday, there is not going to be a government set up in the short term," said Henry Patterson, professor of politics at the University of Ulster.

This fact, according to analysts, coupled with bitterly cold weather for a poll held unusually deep into winter, could see voters stay away in droves -- benefiting more extreme groups whose supporters are generally very committed.

The result is that bookmakers are heavily backing both the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), led by firebrand Protestant minister Ian Paisley and which opposes the Good Friday deal, and Sinn Fein, the IRA's political arm, to make strong gains.

The DUP is odds-on to win more votes than the previously dominant Ulster Unionist Party led by David Trimble, Northern Ireland's "first minister" until the government was suspended.

Similarly, the moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party is widely expected to be pushed into second place among Catholic voters by Sinn Fein.

Given that direct rule from London looks set to continue at least until a fresh round of negotiations between British and Irish ministers and Northern Ireland's parties, the immediate effect of this should be minimal.

However, the dangers of letting the province's peace efforts slip are clear.

Two thousand extra police were mobilized on Tuesday for the election after a bomb partially exploded at an army base in the western town of Dungannon.

Also, it appears that some voters are growing tired of inter-party squabbling, which would seem certain to increase if Sinn Fein and the DUP lock horns armed with increased power bases.

"There's no trust any more in the politicians. Everybody has had it up to here, especially among the young people," was the view of Scott Morrison, sitting in the cafeteria of Belfast's Queens University on election eve.

"All they see is the old inter-party feuding. They are childish," he said.

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