Though Taiwan is taking a more liberal approach to the establishment of trade links with China, it remains unclear whether its foe across the Strait will jump at the opportunity, analysts said yesterday.
First, there's the "one China" principle, which China says Taiwan must accept before any official contacts take place, analysts said. And while Taiwan has moved to do away with the "no haste, be patient" policy, China would likely be unwilling to give the DPP any help in the year-end elections by responding positively to the gesture.
With Taiwan mired in recession, any move on China's part could help the ailing economy -- at least on a superficial level.
But that's something China is unlikely to do, said Wu Yu-shan (吳玉山), National Taiwan University professor of political science. "China has no obligation to help improve Taiwan's economy," Wu said.
China may also feel it has enough room to ignore the gesture in an attempt to push Taiwan to the bargaining table and require it to first accept the "one China" principle.
"Just like it handled the small three links, China will likely ignore Taiwan's gesture," Wu said.
Still, Chang Wu-yeh (張五岳), a cross-strait relations scholar at Tamkang University, said that China may still pay some attention to Taiwan's relaxation of "no haste."
Chang argues that the conclusion reached at the Economic Development Advisory Conference was representative of a consensus of Taiwan's 23 million citizens, and should have a considerable sway on officials in China.
"China should have a more practical response to this [gesture]," Chang said. "When the people lack a consensus, it's much easier for China to use that to its advantage."
A professor at Beijing University's department of international relations was also positive that Taiwan's move could help boost ties between the sides. But the professor said that it was unlikely to mean that ties between both governments would improve.
"If Taiwan really drops the `no haste, be patient' policy then private contacts between individuals on both sides will definitely increase," said Jia Qingguo (
Jia said that the possibility of increased contacts at a non-governmental level could also be transferred to the opening of the three links.
"With the government's silent consent, the opening of direct links could be negotiated between private individuals on both sides," Jia said. "The increase of contacts between the two sides would also create the needed conditions for both sides' entrance into the WTO."
Statistics in China show that there are currently over four hundred thousand Taiwanese who invest and work there. Still, the list of upcoming events on China's and Taiwan's political calendars could also slow China's response, analysts said.
"Before the 16th National Congress is held it's unlikely that China will be willing to change its approach [in handling Taiwan related issues]," said Hsu Song-ken (許松根), an economics professor at Tamkang University.
Analysts said that China would continue to wait and see how the ruling party fares in the year-end legislative elections.
Since President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) took office, China has been unwilling to communicate directly with his government.
"China will wait until after the year-end elections and then see who is charge of the coalition government," Wu said.
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