One or two typhoons could still arrive in the next two months, although the nation is to officially enter the fall season next week, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said yesterday.
As of yesterday, 12 typhoons or tropical storms had formed in the northwest Pacific Ocean this year, which is close to the average of 13.4, CWB Weather Forecast Center Deputy Director Fong Chin-tzu (馮欽賜) said.
The formation of typhoons or tropical storms would continue in the fall, Fong said, adding that another eight or nine typhoons could still affect the northwest Pacific Ocean.
On average, Taiwan is affected by one or two typhoons in the fall, he said.
However, the effects of the convergence of the weather systems and northeast monsoons would bring heavy precipitation to the nation’s east coast, he added.
For example, Typhoon Khanun made landfall in the Philippines in 2017 before moving toward China, Fong said.
Even though Khanun did not make landfall in Taiwan, the interaction between the storm and a northeast monsoon caused 60cm of rainfall in the nation’s east coast in just three days, he said, adding that accumulated rainfall in the region’s mountainous areas topped 1.3m.
Meanwhile, the sea temperature in the northwest Pacific is to remain warm in the fall, Fong said.
“Statistically, the sea temperature is positively correlated with the nation’s temperature in the fall. As such, we estimate that the nation would see a warmer autumn than the climate average,” Fong said.
“As the western Indian Ocean is warm and its east is cold, the nation would have less rainfall than normal in the fall, particularly in October and November,” he said.
Apart from the fall weather forecast, the bureau also recapped significant atmospheric events this summer, which were characterized by a weak Pacific pressure system retreating to the east and a strong monsoon trough.
Due to these developments, Taiwan was under the influence of a large low-pressure system and the southwest wind for a longer period of time, particularly this month, Fong said.
Typhoon Lekima brought significant rainfall earlier this month, he said, adding that the southwest wind continued to affect the nation for 10 days after the typhoon moved away and brought torrential rainfall to central and southern regions.
Lekima was followed by Tropical Storm Bailu, which moved along the edge of the Pacific high-pressure system before moving west to make landfall in Taiwan, Fong said.
A strong southwest wind and Bailu have caused the accumulated rainfall in central and southern regions this month to be slightly higher than the climate average, he added.
“When there is a strong southwest wind, it induces atmospheric sedimentation on the leeward side. As such, temperatures in the nation’s northern and eastern regions have been slightly higher than normal this summer,” Fong said.
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