Polls yesterday disagreed whether President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) or former premier William Lai (賴清德) would be the leading presidential hopeful for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in a three-way presidential election against the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) likely candidates and Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲).
The Cross-Strait Policy Association described Tsai as gaining on Lai in the three-way race for the first time in its polls.
Should Tsai run against the KMT’s Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) and Ko, an independent, Han, Tsai and Ko would respectively claim 32.6 percent, 27.9 percent and 26 percent of the vote, it said.
If Lai ran, he would win 26.8 percent of the vote, trailing Han and Ko by 4.8 percent and 1.8 percent respectively, or underperforming Tsai by 0.1 percent, it said.
In a race against Hon Hai Group chairman Terry Gou (郭台銘) and Ko, Tsai would win 28 percent of the vote against Gou’s 30.2 percent and Ko’s 28 percent, or a slight improvement over Lai’s 27.3 percent, it said.
Tsai’s performance in the three-way races has improved over the past two polls, where Lai led her by one or two points, depending on the scenario, it said.
The poll, which had a margin of error of 2.95 percentage points and 1,101 valid samples, was conducted by telephone on Monday and Tuesday last week, the association said.
However, a separate poll released by the New Constitution Foundation showed that Lai would outperform Tsai against Ko and either Han or Guo.
In a three-way race against Ko and Han, Lai would claim 30.5 of the vote, outperforming Tsai’s 28 percent, whereas in a race with Ko and Gou, Lai would win 30.9 percent of the vote, more than Tsai’s 26.7 percent, it said.
Within the DPP, Lai and Tsai had approval ratings of 47.3 percent and 32 percent respectively, largely unchanged from the foundation’s previous poll, it said, adding that 42.7 percent of respondents expressed unhappiness with the DPP’s decision to delay its presidential primary.
Within the KMT, Han has the highest approval rating at 35.1 percent, ahead of KMT Legislator Wang Jin-pyng’s (王金平) 19.9 percent, Guo’s 17.3 percent and former New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu’s (朱立倫) 14 percent, it said.
The poll, conducted on Thursday and Friday last week, had a margin of error of 3 percentage points and collected 1,069 valid samples.
In related news, a group of pro-localization organizations yesterday held a news conference in support of Lai.
Medical practitioner Chen Yung-hsin (陳永興) said Lai has been running a clean campaign, while the DPP leadership has repeatedly changed the rules of the primary and its schedule to “rig the game in favor of the incumbent.”
A petition to establish an “association of friends of William Lai” had gathered 1,101 signatures since Tuesday, including 288 doctors, with 2,000 signatures being the goal, he added.
Additional reporting by Peng Wan-hsin
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