Former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leadership’s favored pick for the New Taipei City mayoral race, is in dead heat with the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) candidate, Hou You-yi (侯友宜), a new poll found.
According to the Great Society Research Center poll, which was commissioned by the Taiwan NextGen Foundation, Su had an approval rating of 42.6 percent among New Taipei City residents, compared with 41.7 percent for Hou, a difference within the poll’s 2.89-point margin of error.
Su served two terms as commissioner of then-Taipei County from 1997 to 2004.
Prior to the county being upgraded to a special municipality and renamed New Taipei City in December 2010, Su pledged that he would never run again as its mayor.
Nonetheless, 56.1 percent of respondents said they would not be concerned as voters if Su broke his pledge, while 32.5 percent said they would be concerned.
DPP or New Power Party (NPP) supporters and independents are more likely to dismiss concerns over the pledge, while KMT and People First Party (PFP) supporters are more likely to find it inappropriate, an analysis of the poll results showed.
Su leads the pack in approval ratings among DPP and NPP supporters, while Hou leads among KMT and PFP supporters, and independents, the poll indicated.
Hou has an edge among voters who are in their 20s, 40s and 50s, while Su leads in other age groups, the poll showed.
Su’s performance as Taipei County commissioner earned an approval rating of 63.1 percent and a disapproval rating of 16 percent, the poll said.
Satisfaction with Su’s performance as county commissioner was mostly a bipartisan phenomenon, the poll found.
Among KMT supporters, 45.7 percent of respondents approved of Su’s county leadership, higher than the 34.5 percent who expressed dissatisfaction, it said.
New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫) had an approval rating of 48.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 39.2 percent, with perceptions of his city government split along party lines, it said.
When asked to compare Chu and Su, 47 percent said Su was a better leader for New Taipei City, while 30.4 percent favored Chu.
Independents picked Su over Chu, while responses among party-aligned voters were split along partisan lines.
When asked whether Su’s participation in the campaign would be a positive development for New Taipei City’s future, 53.2 percent of respondents said yes, while 36.4 percent disagreed.
KMT supporters were the only voter group to say they disapprove of Su’s candidacy by a majority in the survey, while DPP, NPP and PFP supporters and independents agreed that the city would benefit from Su’s candidacy.
The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday by telephone, with 1,078 valid samples collected and a confidence level of 95 percent.
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