If the situation in the Taiwan Strait destabilizes it would result in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) “China dream” turning into “an horrific nightmare,” Academia Sinica research fellow Joanne Chang (裘兆琳) said yesterday.
The caution came in the wake of an editorial published by China’s state-run Global Times that said Beijing should prepare itself to “arm wrestle” US president-elect Donald Trump and, if necessary, to “Lebanonize” Taiwan and “make the use of military force an actual option to realize reunification.”
Chang, who made the remarks at a hearing held at the Legislative Yuan in Taipei to discuss the potential state of Taiwan-US-China relations after Trump is inaugurated next month, said that whenever there is progress in Taiwan-US bilateral relations China responds with bewilderment and threatens military action, citing the firing of missiles toward Taiwan in 1996 and military drills in which Chinese warplanes flew around Taiwan.
In both cases the US intervened, sending military surveillance equipment to observe developments, Chang said, adding that these actions demonstrate the special characteristics of the trilateral relationship.
If one of the three parties in the relationship acts excessively the other two would unite in response, she said, adding that the balance of that relationship must be maintained after Trump takes office.
If there are concerns that Taiwan would become a bargaining chip for Trump’s administration, Taiwan must seek talks with the US and call for a new strategy, she said.
US-China talks since the 1970s have all included discussions about Taiwan, she said.
There is no cause for concern that “bringing up Taiwan with China means the US wants to sacrifice the nation,” Chang said.
Xi’s “China dream” could not possibly be realized if peace does not exist across the Taiwan Strait, she said, adding that no nation has had a thriving economy amid a civil war.
Taiwan has “paid the greatest cost: humiliation,” she said, citing China’s obstruction of the nation’s participation in international organizations, as well as it moves to prevent Taiwan playing its national anthem and displaying the national flag at international events.
“Each of these humiliations by China has made Taiwanese more independence-leaning,” Chang said. “Continuous pressure from China has resulted in a historical high of 60 percent of Taiwanese considering themselves to be [uniquely] ‘Taiwanese.’”
As Beijing prepares to hold its 19th Chinese Communist Party National Congress next year, some analysts said Xi would likely prioritize social stability and would therefore be unlikely to make any major moves regarding the US-China relationship or Taiwan.
Academia Sinica Institute of European and American Studies assistant research fellow David Huang (黃偉峰) said that China sees the current cross-strait situation as a historical opportunity.
Huang pointed to a US visit by Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi (楊潔篪), saying it was a precursor to a planned Trump-Xi meeting to negotiate the “one China” policy.
Xi could be hoping to use the opportunity to suggest political negotiations with Taiwan, Huang said, adding that such negotiations would secure Xi’s place in the history books.
Cross-strait negotiations might come sooner than Taiwan has anticipated, he said, adding that the government should have a strategic plan in place.
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