The next eight months are “going to be bumpy” for President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), US-Taiwan Business Council president Rupert Hammond-Chambers said.
Tsai, who took office yesterday, inherits a difficult hand when it comes to national defense, he said.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, he said Tsai would focus on developing Taiwan’s domestic defense industry in an attempt to counteract the poor state of US arms sales commitment to the nation.
“Playing catchup on defense after the past eight years of inattention is likely to expose her to accusations that she is provoking China,” Hammond-Chambers said.
He said Tsai’s national security team would engage with the administration of US President Barack Obama this summer and should be clear about what it wants from its relationship with the US.
“Taiwan needs to accept the risk of friction if it makes big requests, such as material support for the design and production of submarines, new fighter trainers and a new front-line fighter,” he said.
According to Hammond-Chambers, after years of “lackluster support” in arms sales to Taiwan, the Obama administration is likely to stall.
“That will put further weight on the outcome of the US presidential election and the willingness of the next US president to uphold the Taiwan Relations Act,” he said.
Hammond-Chambers said there is much that Tsai could achieve unilaterally without relying on tepid US support while ignoring Chinese belligerence, but she should brace herself for a rough start with Beijing.
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