The nation will likely face a shortage of doctors within eight years, a report by the National Health Research Institutes said yesterday.
By 2022, hospitals will face a shortage of 7,762 doctors in their general, surgical, gynecological and obstetrics, pediatrics and emergency departments, while the doctors of today still in service would be at least 40 to 59 years old, which means that in less than eight years sick people might struggle to find doctors to treat them.
The report was compiled by running through archived data of medical management systems from the past decade and comparing the findings with National Health Insurance (NHI) data from 2005 to 2011.
It said demand for doctors in all five departments in 2022 would far exceed what can be provided today.
The general medicine and surgery departments would be taxed with an increased average age of the population, the report said.
General medicine departments would face a shortage of 3,099 to 3,788 doctors by 2022, Institute of Population Health Sciences director Hsiung Chao (熊昭) said, adding that the department of surgery would be short 1,044 to 1,519 doctors.
The departments of gynecology and obstetrics, pediatrics and emergency medicine would be short 46 to 216, 932 to 1,444 and 723 to 795 doctors respectively, Hsiung said.
The lack of human resources aside, the increase in average age for doctors must also be considered, Hsiung said.
The average age of doctors practicing Western medicine is 47, with doctors in departments of gynecology and obstetrics having highest average at 54, Hsiung said.
By 2022, the doctors of all five departments would be aged on average from 40 to 59, and 49 percent of department of gynecology and obstetrics doctors would be at least 64, Hsiung said, adding that the advanced age of doctors would affect the quality of service they could offer patients.
From copies of questionnaires received by the National Health Research Institutes, working hours for the department of surgery currently stand at 74.61 hours per week, while the working hours for the departments of general medical, gynecology and obstetrics, pediatrics and emergency medicine stand at 64.85, 63.55, 58.38 and 54.02 hours per week respectively.
The institutes said that decreasing work hours for doctors is necessary and hospitals must take the burden of medical disputes off doctors’ shoulders if the medical field wishes to recruit new talent.
The government can help by clarifying the definition of what constitutes medical negligence or malpractice, as well as adjusting the premium rates for the NHI system, the report said.
Meanwhile, E-Da Hospital doctor Tsai Chun-chuan (蔡淳娟) said that people blatantly waste a lot of medical resources.
Tsai said the increased occupancy of pediatric medical facilities and the consumption of resources while the nation is seeing a decline in birthrates is indicative of waste, adding that people should change their habits with regard to medical assistance.
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