While all appears calm on the surface of cross-strait relations, both Taiwan and China are “paddling like hell underneath,” according to a new study released this week by the Hoover Institution.
Analyzing the current political situation, Alan Romberg, director of the East Asia Program at the Stimson Center think tank, said everyone seems to see advantage “in staying steady on course and avoiding high-profile adjustments.”
He said examples can be found in China recalculating its tactics in light of the Sunflower movement and in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) putting off reconsideration of its policy toward Beijing until after the Nov. 29 elections.
The former state department official said it is “obvious” that China was “surprised” by the breadth of support in Taiwan for the Sunflower movement and by the widespread lack of trust and apparent depth of public anxiety about “possibly falling into a PRC [People’s Republic of China] reunification trap.”
However, Beijing has sought to portray its policy toward Taiwan as consistent and has claimed steady progress, he said.
At the same time, President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration has been generally upbeat, Romberg said.
“Still, it was clear that the Mainland Affairs Council felt it needed to proceed prudently in ongoing negotiations so as not to create misunderstandings and suspicions among the Taiwan public,” he said.
Romberg said the PRC would continue its efforts to win hearts and minds, but how it would do that is “a work in progress.”
He said: “To some extent, the mainland may have reverted to the view that people in Taiwan really only care about their pocketbooks.”
Beijing seems to have discounted any significant benefit from greater flexibility on such issues as international space, Romberg said.
He said that while some observers think Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is more open-minded than his predecessor, “there were instances of retrograde and ham-fisted PRC behavior that reinforced Beijing’s image of small-mindedness.”
Romberg said that DPP chair Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has engaged in a relentless attack on the Ma administration’s capabilities and performance.
“Tsai continued to deflect consideration of the party’s cross-strait policy until a more propitious moment, presumably after the November elections and perhaps even further, until after, as she clearly hopes, she locks up the DPP presidential nomination,” he said.
He said that China seems to be genuinely asking itself whether the DPP is holding to its cross-strait line simply as part of its effort to resume office or is instead seeking to position things to eventually achieve independence.
Romberg quoted a senior Chinese expert on Taiwan as saying that the DPP remains the biggest obstacle to the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.
He said that Ma’s backing of the Economic Coperation Framework Agreement agenda to gain Beijing’s support for broader economic and trade diversification showed he recognizes the reality of Beijing’s sway over many trading partners.
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