Submarine sales to Taiwan are “highly improbable,” a new commentary published by the US Council on Foreign Relations says.
“Transferring submarine technology to the island will take too long and cost the Taiwanese military far more than what it can afford,” council research associate Lauren Dickey said.
She said that the costs the US would incur to resurrect small numbers of diesel-powered submarines for Taipei would yield few benefits for the US military.
Dickey said that US submarine help to Taiwan would “tap into state of the art technology used in US nuclear-powered submarines” and that is not something the Pentagon would be eager to share with others.
“As Taiwanese military officials have an unfortunate history of passing classified military information into the hands of the People’s Liberation Army, Washington should remain cautious in transferring any sensitive technology or capabilities to Taiwan,” Dickey said.
She said that Germany, Japan and the Netherlands all produce small, diesel-electric submarines that would meet Taiwan’s needs, but that what holds these countries back from selling to Taiwan is the fear of economic or political fallout from Beijing.
“China has demonstrated time and time again an ability to impose political costs and threaten those that sell weapons to Taiwan,” Dickey said.
She also said that any submarines acquired by Taiwan may actually do more harm than good due to their vulnerabilities to existing Chinese weapons.
“Simply put, diesel submarines are not the effective defensive capability the island wants or needs,” Dickey said.
Rather, she said, Taiwan should strengthen its antisubmarine warfare capabilities and add to its fleet of 12 P-3 Orion antisubmarine aircraft, replacing its antiquated S-2 Tracker aircraft.
Dickey also recommended more land-based anti-ship missiles and high-speed multifunctional fast attack craft similar to the Type-022 Houbei class.
“In the case a more conservative government emerges after mid-term elections in November, or perhaps more importantly, a pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government steps in to lead Taiwan in 2016, the need to re-evaluate Taiwan’s defense requests will persist, but for now, as Washington’s rebalance to Asia plays out, there is neither time nor money requisite to help the island develop its nascent submarine program,” she said.
Senior fellow on Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center (IASC) Richard Fisher strongly disagreed with a number of Dickey’s arguments.
He said the US was not limited to US nuclear submarine technology.
“The US developed the Barbel Class conventional submarine in the late 1950s and it was so advanced that it became the basis for Japan’s early classes of submarines. Washington could purchase Japan’s advanced version of the Barbel on behalf of Taiwan,” Fisher said.
Fisher said the US was the principal subcontractor for Australia’s Collins-class submarines, supplying combat systems. Washington could assist Taiwan’s current submarine plans in the same way, he said.
Turning to Dickey’s claims that submarines were too expensive for Taiwan, he said Taipei had settled on a small, but still tactically useful, though much less expensive submarine design.
“Submarines are very expensive, but the deterrent value they offer against China is well worth the price,” Fisher said.
He said that every weapon sold to Taiwan, or most other US allies, suffered under the threat of espionage.
“The US probably takes precautions that it would rather not disclose,” he said. “Americans have never shied away from selling arms and offering assistance, and we should not start when it comes to selling submarine technology to Taiwan.”
He said that any weapon that could defeat a Chinese invasion was what Taiwan needed right now.
“Submarines can hide, wait and sink the scores of large ships filled with the troops and tanks that would be used to invade Taiwan,” he said. “Missile emplacements and other elements can be attacked by Chinese missile and air power. They have to work much much harder to find Taiwan’s submarines.”
SPACE VETERAN: Kjell N. Lindgren, who helps lead NASA’s human spaceflight missions, has been on two expeditions on the ISS and has spent 311 days in space Taiwan-born US astronaut Kjell N. Lindgren is to visit Taiwan to promote technological partnerships through one of the programs organized by the US for its 250th national anniversary. Lindgren would be in Taiwan from Tuesday to Saturday next week as part of the US Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs’ US Speaker Program, organized to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) said in a statement yesterday. Lindgren plans to engage with key leaders across the nation “to advance cutting-edge technological partnerships and inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers,”
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus yesterday said it opposes the introduction of migrant workers from India until a mechanism is in place to prevent workers from absconding. Minister of Labor Hung Sun-han (洪申翰) on Thursday told the Legislative Yuan that the first group of migrant workers from India could be introduced as early as this year, as part of a government program. The caucus’ opposition to the policy is based on the assessment that “the risk is too high,” KMT caucus secretary-general Lin Pei-hsiang (林沛祥) said. Taiwan has a serious and long-standing problem of migrant workers absconding from their contracts, indicating that
UNREASONABLE SURVEILLANCE: A camera targeted on an road by a neighbor captured a man’s habitual unsignaled turn into home, netting him dozens of tickets The Taichung High Administrative Court has canceled all 45 tickets given to a man for failing to use a turn signal while driving, as it considered long-term surveillance of his privacy more problematic than the traffic violations. The man, surnamed Tseng (曾), lives in Changhua County and was reported 45 times within a month for failing to signal while driving when he turned into the alley where his residence is. The reports were filed by his neighbor, who set up security cameras that constantly monitored not only the alley but also the door and yard of Tseng’s house. The surveillance occurred from July
TRADE-OFF: Beijing seeks to trade a bowl of tempura for a Chinese delicacy, an official said, while another said its promises were attempts to interfere in the polls The government must carefully consider the national security implications of building a bridge connecting Kinmen County and Xiamen, China, the Public Construction Commission (PCC) said yesterday. PCC Commissioner Derek Chen (陳金德), who is also a minister without portfolio, made the remarks in a meeting of the legislature’s Transportation Committee, after Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Hsu Fu-kuei (徐富癸) asked about China’s proposal of new infrastructure projects to further connect Kinmen and Lienchiang (Matsu) counties with Xiamen. China unveiled the bridge plan, along with nine other policies for Taiwan, on Sunday, the last day of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun’s (鄭麗文) visit
RSS