Budget cuts have left US President Barack Obama’s “pivot” to Asia without any real teeth and may in the process have increased Taiwan’s vulnerability, a team of US military experts said on Wednesday.
With one exception, Beijing’s warship building program has followed moderate growth, National War College professor Bernard Cole said.
The exception, he said, was that since 2000 China has built almost 40 conventionally powered submarines in addition to a new class of nuclear-powered boat.
“I think this represents what is for Beijing the No. 1 strategic objective — the status of Taiwan,” Cole said.
He told a panel discussion at the Heritage Foundation that if China decides to use force against Taiwan to prevent independence it will rely heavily on submarines.
“If they can sortie two or three dozen submarines, that would slow or prevent effective US naval intervention for quite a period of time,” Cole said. “Hence, they continue to build conventionally powered submarines.”
Cole said that China’s nuclear-powered submarine program was in “something of a hiatus,” but that Beijing still intends to develop nuclear attack and ballistic missile submarines.
The panel discussion titled “What Asia Pivot?” also included former US secretary of the navy David Winter, Vanderbilt University military expert James Auer and senior Heritage Foundation fellow Bruce Klingner.
They agreed that the Obama administration’s defense strategy and its “pivot” have been undercut by a lack of resources.
“Even as the number of threats to global peace and stability continues to multiply, there has not been a commensurate increase of US capabilities,” a Heritage Foundation introduction to the discussion read.
“To what degree will massive defense cuts and reductions in the overall US military structure constrain America’s global power projection and force sustainability in the Pacific?” it asked.
The greatest worry for the US right now is the Chinese submarine fleet, Auer said.
“There is no pivot in the Asia pivot, it is a change in focus rather than forces,” he said.
Cole said that in every Taiwan crisis from 1950 to 1996 Beijing miscalculated what the likely US response would be.
“In some of those cases it had to do with statements by political leaders in [the US], but in other cases it had to do with [Beijing’s] observation of where US forces were committed,” Cole said. “I could easily foresee a situation where the aircraft carrier George Washington was undergoing a complex overhaul and where two other carriers were in the Persian Gulf.”
He said in those circumstances a Chinese naval planner might conclude it would take the US weeks to get a carrier in place.
As a result, Cole said, the planner might “paint a certain tactical picture” that could lead the People’s Liberation Army to make “certain strategic recommendations” to the leadership in Beijing.
“I think the Chinese very carefully track where possible opposing naval forces are located,” Cole said.
A reduction in the US fleet as a result of budget cuts could lead the US Navy to cut its presence in Asia.
The discussion took place as Taiwan was receiving the first of 12 P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft from the US. The other 11 are due to be delivered by 2015.
The aircraft can detect submarines on and below the surface, and carry powerful anti-ship and anti-submarine attack weapons.
EXPANSIONIST: China deploys an average of 40 to 50 warships and coast guard vessels daily in the South China Sea, despite pledges not to militarize the region, an official said China is attempting to expand its influence across the First Island Chain and increase pressure on Japan by sending coast guard vessels into waters off of Taiwan under the pretext of maritime negotiations with Japan and the Philippines, a national security official said yesterday. China’s recent actions in the waters east of Taiwan and Japan and the Philippines’ exclusive economic zones (EEZ) are attempts to establish dominance in First Island Chain waters, said the official who declined to be named, adding that this is “expansion disguised as law enforcement.” Framing China’s actions solely as a cross-strait issue is a serious misjudgment that
Through analyzing fossil evidence, a research team at National Taiwan University (NTU) discovered the largest endemic bird to have lived in Taiwan, naming it Pavo miejue, or extinct peafowl (滅絕孔雀). The Mikado pheasant, which is printed on the back of the NT$1,000 bank note, was previously believed to be the biggest endemic bird to Taiwan. The research team’s findings suggest that Pavo miejue lived during the Pleistocene epoch tens of thousands of years ago. It is the first endemic extinct bird species discovered and formally named in Taiwan. The study was coauthored by NTU Institute of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology professor Tsai Cheng-hsiu (蔡政修),
Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport is to suspend its automated Skytrain service connecting Terminal 1 and Terminal 2 starting on July 1 to facilitate connection works for the upcoming Terminal 3, the airport operator said today. Passengers and staff who need to travel between the two terminals after the suspension can instead use the Taoyuan MRT or the airport's 24-hour shuttle bus service, Taoyuan International Airport Corp said. The Taoyuan MRT Airport Line directly links the two terminals, while the shuttle buses are to operate around the clock, the company added. The Skytrain provides free transportation between the airport’s two terminals for travelers and
Taiwan ranked 42nd in terms of peacefulness among 163 countries, down five places from last year, according to this year’s Global Peace Index. With an overall score of 1.751, Taiwan dropped from 37th last year, the report published by the global Institute for Economics and Peace showed. The overall score measures a country’s level of peacefulness using 23 quantitative and qualitative indicators across three domains — ongoing domestic and international conflict, societal safety and security, and militarization. While Taiwan ranked 42nd worldwide, it was listed in ninth place among the 19 Asian-Pacific countries in the report, after New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia,
RSS