Residents in southern Taiwan could be in for a somewhat wet spring, the Central Weather Bureau said yesterday, but added that there were several variables that could impact levels of precipitation.
Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典), director of the bureau’s forecast center, said the East Pacific Ocean is still under the influence of a weakened La Nina.
While records for the past 10 years showed spring rainfall was likely to be less than normal, Cheng said the bureau’s forecast showed it could be between normal and less than normal this year.
The rain belt from the southern part of China would be less active because of the influence from a north Pacific high air front, potentially causing rainfall in the north, center and east of the country to be less than normal this month, he said.
However, a strong convective system in the Philippine Sea, which is more active than usual, could bring strong precipitation to southern Taiwan this year whenever the cloud system moves northward, he said.
“Generally speaking, the year following a La Nina year will have less rain in the spring,” Cheng said.
“But when the [convection] cloud system in the south — a relatively less stable system — moves north, it could bring heavy rain. The accumulated rainfall could exceed our estimates if heavy rain occurs a few times,” he said.
There is a 60 percent chance that spring rainfall in the south could fall within the normal range this month, but there remains a 30 percent chance that the rainfall could go above the normal range and 10 percent that it could go below, Cheng said.
As the La Nina effect is expected to weaken further next month and in May, Cheng said there is a 40 percent chance that the rainfall nationwide would fall within the normal range.
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