Liberty Times: How would you view the results of the Jan. 14 presidential election? Will President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) be able to define and shape the evolution of his future values?
Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華): The votes Ma received this time cannot be compared with the previous presidential election because he lost 1 million votes this time. Given that the numbers of seats of the opposition parties in the Legislative Yuan have grown, there is hope that they would be able to form more of a deterrent to the implementation of the president’s policies.
However, the problem with Taiwan’s constitutional political system is that there is a lack of systems to oversee and counter-balance the [powers of the] president, unlike the West, where the Cabinet is overseen by the legislature, or where in the US system where the US president has to report to Congress and be monitored by independent committees.
Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times
In comparison with former premiers Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) and Wu Den-yih (吳敦義), who enjoyed more autonomy in the selection of their Cabinet members, it seems that in this term Ma wishes to be the only one with the power. And already his intervention in the formation of the Cabinet can clearly be seen as both [Vice Premier] Jiang Yi-hua (江宜樺) and [Minister without Portfolio] Simon Chang (張善政) said they had received a call from the president [about their new posts.]
The president has also directly invited Cabinet members and on his own initiative proposed policy directions, such as the review of the US beef import issue.
In my opinion, Sean Chen (陳冲) is almost sure to be a premier without power and all there is to say on the issue is that the Ma-Wu-King [Pu-tsung] (金溥聰, Ma’s closest aide) system will only become more solidified in Ma’s second term.
Even if we can use the quadrennial presidential elections to monitor the president, we are without systems [granting] sufficient oversight of the decision-making of everyday policy.
This is one of the great problems with the Taiwanese political system and we can only expect [amelioration of the issue with] more mature civilian politics to give birth to civilian oversight or media pressure to form [sufficient oversight over policymaking] in the future.
LT: With the power of the new premier stripped away and the nation facing multiple domestic and foreign-related issues, what other challenges do you envisage in the future?
Ku: Many of the economic figures released prior to the election were immediately contradicted by those announced afterward and the [warning light on the] economy has fallen from “blue-yellow” to “blue.”
While the prices for water, electricity, gas and gasoline had been frozen by the government prior to the elections, the immediate post-election rise in prices for everything showed that the government was trying to gloss over the real problems through administrative manipulation, ignoring reality.
With the price hikes, the public is bound to feel disappointed and the disappointment could lead to hate. This, along with the downward slide in living quality and a sense of being fooled, these are the grim circumstances facing the new Cabinet.
The other problem is the US beef issue. My prediction is that efforts to allow the import of US beef will almost certainly to pass.
[While] many are describing this as an “electoral debt,” the Ma administration owes the US government for its former officials being vocal in their support for Ma prior to the election. [I think] the government has a script that it’s playing to and it has already promised the US to allow imports, while allowing certain channels in the country to vent their opposition, maybe even persuading or allowing people to conduct demonstrations against the imports. However, in the end the possibility of allowing the import of US beef is larger than the alternative.
When the Ma administration allowed US bone-in beef [a few years ago] to be imported, it caused a public trust crisis in the government. The announcement of talks to expand US beef imports just a few days after Ma was re-elected and threatening the public with the possibility of a diplomatic crisis makes it evident that the new Cabinet has [to add] another crisis of faith in the government from the public to the list of what it has to deal with.
If the eurozone debt crisis impacts Taiwan, can Taiwan’s own financial system weather the blow? These are all problems. Can the new Cabinet ameliorate the growing wealth gap, the most crucial issue for the Taiwanese public? Can it maintain social equality and justice?
The new Cabinet also has to face the issues of rising commodity prices and the refusal of housing prices to drop, as well as the new “taxes” Ma wishes to add.
A close examination of Ma’s financial Cabinet would reveal that there are no new faces and it will fall on the shoulders of these old members to come up with new tricks, or Ma’s proposed “golden decade” will have an even sharper contrast with the actual feelings of the public.
LT: After the signing of the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), it seems that the Ma administration will open Taiwan up more to China and use its help to resolve economic problems. What are your views on the issue?
Ku: Currently the Ma government has, bit-by-bit, publicized the idea of opening up our banking system to China and allowing Chinese investors to invest in public infrastructure construction. The educational sector will allow more Chinese students in the vocational school system to come study in Taiwan.
From this we can see that a large part of Ma’s second term will rely on Chinese resources to reduce domestic economic pressures.
Though some have used [South] Korea to make a comparison, [I don’t think its an apt comparison because] the Koreans have great ambitions and currently seem to be on the trend of exceeding Japan and even China, which would give them more of a competitive edge internationally.
For example, according to sources, Samsung Corp’s average wages have already reached NT$88,000. But if Taiwan throws everything toward China, our competitive edge will become closer to that of China, causing a growing gap between Taiwan and [South] Korea as our overhead labor costs and wages continue to decrease.
Do all of Taiwan’s eggs have to be put into the one Chinese basket? In reality, the basket is very small, and the economic benefits Taiwan has to gain from China, such as from original equipment manufacturing and tourists, are actually the items with lower added value and interest, and the side effects might even be greater than the benefits.
Look at Hong Kong for example, where commodities are being bought out [by mainland Chinese], housing prices are soaring, the chaos and degradation of living quality and environment, Hong Kongers are actually feeling more resentment toward the Chinese rather than identifying with them.
Various sectors in Taiwan are also worried that the nation will further open its doors to China, despite Ma’s promise not to sign a cross-strait peace accord or other political negotiations during his second term, anticipating that the “benefits” the Chinese gave to Taiwan prior to the elections will now have to be reciprocated by the Ma administration.
China is evidently using “commercial means to force political negotiation,” a model they tried on Hong Kong.
Before Hong Kong was returned in 1997, China also gave a lot of benefits to Hong Kong, but afterwards, not only has the territory’s medical and educational resources been placed under severe strain by Chinese, Hong Kongers have even been described by Peking University professor Kong Qingdong (孔慶東) as dogs [of British colonialists].
Kong not only criticized Hong Kongers, he also spoke most clearly to China’s intentions for Taiwan. Aside from criticizing Taiwan’s democracy and elections, Kong said that “ultimately Taiwan would be returned to China or Taiwan is on the path of ‘doing things the hard way.’” Evidently the past benefits [from China] were all doing things the “soft way,” and if we refuse to cooperate, China would choose to “do things the hard way.”
The ripples of the Chinese effect can be seen in the Taiwanese government, businessmen and the public — especially from the comments and actions of many Taiwanese businessmen — where post-election there is more talk of cross-strait unification.
The help that the US extended to Ma prior to the election culminated in the request for the resumption of US beef imports after Ma’s victory and the bilateral Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between Taiwan and the US is being used as a bargaining chip.
The US only wants economic benefits, but China? It wants sovereignty over Taiwan. I hope someone can wake Ma up and remind him: Don’t limit yourself to the Chinese Dream in your second term.
Translated by Jake Chung, staff writer
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