Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) leads President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who is seeking re-election in the Jan. 14 presidential election, by about 1 percentage point, or between 100,000 and 150,000 votes, in the party’s latest survey, the DPP said yesterday.
The party estimated that almost 99 percent of the electorate have decided who they would vote for two weeks before election day, and turnout rates would be one of the deciding factors.
DPP poll director Chen Chun-lin (陳俊麟) briefed reporters on the poll yesterday to meet the Jan. 4 deadline for publishing and discussing public opinion polls, as regulated by the Central Election Commission.
Photo: Patrick lin, AFP
The vote share simulation was actually an aggregation of regional polls, which were conducted in 69 of 73 legislative districts nationwide between the middle of November and late last month, and collected more than 70,000 samples, with different variables added in.
The simulation found that Tsai led Ma by more than 450,000 votes in Yunlin, Chiayi and Greater Tainan and about 300,000 votes in Greater Kaohsiung and Pingtung, Chen said.
The DPP presidential candidate trailed Ma by about 250,000 votes in Taipei and New Taipei City (新北市), by less than 300,000 votes in Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli and by less than 100,000 in Yilan, Hualien, Taitung and the outlying islands of Kinmen and Matsu, he said.
Tsai trailed Ma by about 50,000 votes, or 3 percent, in central Taiwan, he said, adding that the region “could be a toss-up, given the tight race.”
Compared with the 2008 presidential election, Chen said the DPP has made great strides in northern and central Taiwan, in particular New Taipei City and Taoyuan.
Ma has lost more than 1 million of the 7.56 million votes he won four years ago, while Tsai has garnered more than 1.2 million votes for her party, despite trailing by a slim margin among female voters, Chen said.
The DPP has also fared much better in urban areas and was able to win support from voters in the 20 to 35 age bracket, who suffer more from low social mobility, high unemployment and high housing prices.
However, voter turnout could be a deciding factor in the election, with traditional wisdom arguing that high turnout rates benefit the KMT, he said.
Chen predicted the turnout rate would fall between 76 and 78 percent this year, higher than the 76 percent in the 2008 presidential election.
Other variables that could impact voter turnout and the outcome of the tightly-contested race include vote-buying, the weather on Jan. 14 and the number of people who return to their hometown to vote.
Since the simulation was an aggregation of polls rather than a national poll, it was difficult to calculate the margin of error, he said.
People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) is expected to secure between 5 percent and 6 percent of the vote, said a DPP source, who wished to remain anonymous.
The source said large-scale “strategic voting” behavior is not expected, with about 70 percent of Soong’s supporters expected to stick with him to the end.
Hong Kong singer Eason Chan’s (陳奕迅) concerts in Kaohsiung this weekend have been postponed after he was diagnosed with Covid-19 this morning, the organizer said today. Chan’s “FEAR and DREAMS” concert which was scheduled to be held in the coming three days at the Kaohsiung Arena would be rescheduled to May 29, 30 and 31, while the three shows scheduled over the next weekend, from May 23 to 25, would be held as usual, Universal Music said in a statement. Ticket holders can apply for a full refund or attend the postponed concerts with the same seating, the organizer said. Refund arrangements would
Former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on Monday called for greater cooperation between Taiwan, Lithuania and the EU to counter threats to information security, including attacks on undersea cables and other critical infrastructure. In a speech at Vilnius University in the Lithuanian capital, Tsai highlighted recent incidents in which vital undersea cables — essential for cross-border data transmission — were severed in the Taiwan Strait and the Baltic Sea over the past year. Taiwanese authorities suspect Chinese sabotage in the incidents near Taiwan’s waters, while EU leaders have said Russia is the likely culprit behind similar breaches in the Baltic. “Taiwan and our European
Taiwanese indie band Sunset Rollercoaster and South Korean outfit Hyukoh collectively received the most nominations at this year’s Golden Melody Awards, earning a total of seven nods from the jury on Wednesday. The bands collaborated on their 2024 album AAA, which received nominations for best band, best album producer, best album design and best vocal album recording. “Young Man,” a single from the album, earned nominations for song of the year and best music video, while another track, “Antenna,” also received a best music video nomination. Late Hong Kong-American singer Khalil Fong (方大同) was named the jury award winner for his 2024 album
The US Department of State on Monday reaffirmed that US policy on Taiwan remains unchanged, following US President Donald Trump’s use of the term “unification” while commenting on recent trade talks with China. Speaking at a wide-ranging press conference, Trump described what he viewed as progress in trade negotiations with China held in Geneva, Switzerland, over the weekend. “They’ve agreed to open China — fully open China, and I think it’s going to be fantastic for China. I think it’s going to be fantastic for us,” Trump said. “I think it’s going to be great for unification and peace.” Trump’s use of the
RSS