The approaching winter season will waste no time as the first cold air mass of the season is scheduled to arrive on Friday, with temperatures sliding to as low as 13°C in northern Taiwan, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said yesterday.
Lin Hsiu-wen (林秀雯), deputy director of the bureau’s forecast center, said the nation would be under the influence of a strong cold air mass from continental Asia from Friday to Sunday, causing temperatures to drop.
“We estimate that residents in the northern and northeastern regions could experience low temperatures of 13°C to 14°C,” Lin said, adding that the chance of rain would be high in these two regions.
Lin added, however, that the weather on Saturday and Sunday could be slightly better because dry air would arrive from the north. People may even see sunshine as well, she said. The bureau forecast the cold air mass to weaken on Monday, but the chance of rain remains high in windward areas.
Meanwhile, as the nation officially enters the winter season this week, bureau forecast center director Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典) said global weather patterns would still be under the influence of a weak La Nina effect from this winter through the spring, but its impact on Taiwan and Northeast Asia would not be obvious.
The bureau estimated there would be a 50 percent chance that average winter temperatures would fall within the normal climate range. However, there remains a 30 percent chance that temperatures would be lower than the normal range and a 20 percent chance that it would be higher.
A similar phenomenon also occurred in the forecast for rainfall in the winter. While there is a 40 percent chance rainfall would occur within the normal range, the bureau also found a 30 percent chance that rainfall would be higher or lower than the normal range.
Commenting on the forecast, Cheng used the word “special” to describe the phenomenon, as the bureau would normally receive a stronger indication on which the three possibilities is more likely.
“The uncertainty of this winter’s weather forecast is rather high,” he said. “People should pay attention to the latest weather forecast from the bureau.”
Cheng said the weather this month was also “special,” as 15 of the nation’s 25 observation stations had recorded the highest average temperature for November because of a relatively weaker northeast monsoon.
He said the convergence of the southwest and southeastern winds as well as the geographical effect caused by the Central Mountain Range had interacted to cause massive rainfall in central and southern regions of Taiwan this month, with accumulated rainfall recorded by 10 observation stations exceeding historical marks set in November.
Chen also pointed out that the number of typhoons formed over the northwest Pacific Ocean was 20 this year, slightly below the climate average of 24.5. The number of typhoons making landfall over Taiwan was lower than estimated as well.
“Whether it is a long-term trend or a special case requires further observation,” he said.
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