President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has increased his lead over Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in the January presidential election both in a head-to-head battle and a possible three-way race, a survey by the Taiwanese Association for Pacific Ocean Development (TAPOD) showed.
Results of the poll, conducted from Monday last week through Wednesday with 1,623 valid samples, were released at a press conference yesterday.
The poll showed that 43.2 percent of respondents would vote for Ma, while 35.9 percent would vote for Tsai. However, if People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) joined the race, Ma’s support would drop to 33.6 percent, while Tsai’s would drop to 29.8 percent, with Soong receiving 11.5 percent, while 16.9 percent were undecided.
In comparison with the first poll TAPOD released last month, Ma, who is seeking re-election, has increased his lead from 1.7 percent over Tsai in a head-to-head contest.
In a three-way race, Ma’s lead over Tsai went up from 0.7 percent.
Contrary to most surveys, which have shown that 20 percent of voters remain undecided, TAPOD chairman You Ying-lung (游盈隆) said the poll found more than half of respondents had yet to make up their mind.
Additional questions found more than 70 percent of respondents opposed Chinese President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) claim that “Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China belong to ‘one China,’” including 44 percent who said they “strongly disagree” with the claim.
“Judging from the survey, we are almost certain that a majority of Taiwanese don’t agree with Hu’s ‘one China’ principle,” You said.
Meanwhile, more than 60 percent of respondents disagreed with the contention that “Taiwan will become part of the People’s Republic of China sooner or later if Ma is re-elected,” the poll showed.
Claims by Tsai last week that Ma could “sell out” Taiwan and its people do not appear to resonate with most voters, You said.
A question on voters’ psychological involvement found only 35.4 percent of respondents were highly interested in the presidential election, with about 30 percent saying they “were somewhat interested or not interested in the election at all.”
The results would be a concern for Tsai, You said, as past elections have shown that a “cooler campaign atmosphere” benefits Ma’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), while intensely contested elections favor the Democratic Progressive Party.
“If the survey result is correct, this election is going to be a ‘cool’ one,” You said.
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