Former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) yesterday said that democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would win the presidential election by a slim margin and propel the DPP to a legislative majority.
“Currently, the two major parties are locked in a 50-50 split for the 2012 presidential elections. The [end] result on Jan. 14 will be very close,” the imprisoned Chen wrote in his bi-weekly statement, released by members of his office.
Citing recent opinion polls, Chen said: “The DPP will still win and Tsai will become Taiwan’s first female president, given her lead of 3 to 5 percentage points [in the polls].”
The DPP would most likely elect 57 legislators, giving it a slight majority in the 113-seat legislature, he added.
Chen, who continues to wield significant influence in the DPP through his One Side, One Country alliance despite being sentenced to 17-and-a-half years in jail for bribery and money laundering, has openly expressed his support for Tsai, although party officials have largely downplayed his backing.
The former president’s predictions are largely in line with media polls that either show the DPP candidate with a slight lead or suggest that Tsai and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) are tied.
A survey released on May 25 by the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) showed that Tsai held a 4 percentage point lead over Ma — 35 percent to 31 percent.
A TVBS poll released on May 20 showed support for Ma at 45 percent compared with Tsai’s 44 percent.
Both candidates’ leads in the respective polls were within the margin of error.
Chen said that Tsai’s addition to the ballot had taken away two pillars of support for Ma: Young people and women, which he said would be enough to lead to a narrow DPP victory, citing prior election experience.
“Ma no longer has any advantage among young people ... and it is a given that more women will support Tsai,” Chen said, adding that widespread public interest in the race would likely contribute to record-high voter turnout of about 80 percent.
It will be a “very competitive election campaign,” he said.
“Tsai isn’t second to Ma either in leadership ability or educational background. She’s also younger,” Chen said.
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