Former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) yesterday said that democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would win the presidential election by a slim margin and propel the DPP to a legislative majority.
“Currently, the two major parties are locked in a 50-50 split for the 2012 presidential elections. The [end] result on Jan. 14 will be very close,” the imprisoned Chen wrote in his bi-weekly statement, released by members of his office.
Citing recent opinion polls, Chen said: “The DPP will still win and Tsai will become Taiwan’s first female president, given her lead of 3 to 5 percentage points [in the polls].”
The DPP would most likely elect 57 legislators, giving it a slight majority in the 113-seat legislature, he added.
Chen, who continues to wield significant influence in the DPP through his One Side, One Country alliance despite being sentenced to 17-and-a-half years in jail for bribery and money laundering, has openly expressed his support for Tsai, although party officials have largely downplayed his backing.
The former president’s predictions are largely in line with media polls that either show the DPP candidate with a slight lead or suggest that Tsai and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) are tied.
A survey released on May 25 by the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) showed that Tsai held a 4 percentage point lead over Ma — 35 percent to 31 percent.
A TVBS poll released on May 20 showed support for Ma at 45 percent compared with Tsai’s 44 percent.
Both candidates’ leads in the respective polls were within the margin of error.
Chen said that Tsai’s addition to the ballot had taken away two pillars of support for Ma: Young people and women, which he said would be enough to lead to a narrow DPP victory, citing prior election experience.
“Ma no longer has any advantage among young people ... and it is a given that more women will support Tsai,” Chen said, adding that widespread public interest in the race would likely contribute to record-high voter turnout of about 80 percent.
It will be a “very competitive election campaign,” he said.
“Tsai isn’t second to Ma either in leadership ability or educational background. She’s also younger,” Chen said.
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) today issued a sea warning for Typhoon Fung-wong effective from 5:30pm, while local governments canceled school and work for tomorrow. A land warning is expected to be issued tomorrow morning before it is expected to make landfall on Wednesday, the agency said. Taoyuan, and well as Yilan, Hualien and Penghu counties canceled work and school for tomorrow, as well as mountainous district of Taipei and New Taipei City. For updated information on closures, please visit the Directorate-General of Personnel Administration Web site. As of 5pm today, Fung-wong was about 490km south-southwest of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan's southernmost point.
Almost a quarter of volunteer soldiers who signed up from 2021 to last year have sought early discharge, the Legislative Yuan’s Budget Center said in a report. The report said that 12,884 of 52,674 people who volunteered in the period had sought an early exit from the military, returning NT$895.96 million (US$28.86 million) to the government. In 2021, there was a 105.34 percent rise in the volunteer recruitment rate, but the number has steadily declined since then, missing recruitment targets, the Chinese-language United Daily News said, citing the report. In 2021, only 521 volunteers dropped out of the military, the report said, citing
A magnitude 5.3 earthquake struck Kaohsiung at 1pm today, the Central Weather Administration said. The epicenter was in Jiasian District (甲仙), 72.1km north-northeast of Kaohsiung City Hall, at a depth of 7.8km, agency data showed. There were no immediate reports of damage. The earthquake's intensity, which gauges the actual effects of a temblor, was highest in Kaohsiung and Tainan, where it measured a 4 on Taiwan's seven-tier intensity scale. It also measured a 3 in parts of Chiayi City, as well as Pingtung, Yunlin and Hualien counties, data showed.
Nearly 5 million people have signed up to receive the government’s NT$10,000 (US$322) universal cash handout since registration opened on Wednesday last week, with deposits expected to begin tomorrow, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday. After a staggered sign-up last week — based on the final digit of the applicant’s national ID or Alien Resident Certificate number — online registration is open to all eligible Taiwanese nationals, foreign permanent residents and spouses of Taiwanese nationals. Banks are expected to start issuing deposits from 6pm today, the ministry said. Those who completed registration by yesterday are expected to receive their NT$10,000 tomorrow, National Treasury
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