A university prediction center yesterday said there was a 47 percent chance that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) would win next year’s presidential election, although the probability that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) or Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would step into the Presidential Office was almost on a par.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, Future Events Trading Co said the probability that Ma would be re-elected was NT$47, while his odds of his representing the KMT, of which he is chairman, were NT$90.20 as of yesterday.
The probability that DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would be nominated as her party’s presidential candidate was NT$57.50. Other potential DPP candidates were former premiers Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) at NT$27.40 and NT$13.20 respectively. Former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) was NT$0.30.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the possibility of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
Regardless of who represents the KMT or the DPP in next year’s election, the center said the chances that the two parties’ candidates would win were roughly the same. The latest price for the KMT was NT$51.20 against NT$50.70 for the DPP.
Among the potential candidates, Ma remained the most formidable contender, with a price of NT$47.40 compared with Tsai’s NT$29.70, Su’s NT$12.90 and Hsieh’s NT$10.80.
Lu’s price was NT$0.10, lower than People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) at NT$2 and former DPP chairman Lin I-hsiung (林義雄) at NT$1.30.
Meanwhile, Future Events Trading Co yesterday launched its “Democracy 2.0” project, which will serve as a clearinghouse for various online interaction platforms between the public and government, including predictions of elections, public selections of candidates, surveys on government performance and policy innovations.
Tung Chen-yuan (童振源), the director of National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center, which organized the project, said they hoped the mechanism would provide a platform for timely, progressive and sustained democratic interaction between the public and politicians.
“The public can only feel it is the real master of this country when an election is held and only during elections are politicians humble and have the voters in mind,” Tung said.
The Citizen Congress Watch and New Talk organizations have joined the Democracy 2.0 Action Alliance, Tung said, adding that they hoped to see more civic groups or media organizations come on board.
Eight restaurants in Taiwan yesterday secured a one-star rating from the Michelin Guide Taiwan for the first time, while three one-star restaurants from last year’s edition were promoted to two stars. Forty-three restaurants were awarded one star this year, including 34 in Taipei, five in Taichung and four in Kaohsiung. Hosu (好嶼), Chuan Ya (川雅), Sushi Kajin (鮨嘉仁), aMaze (心宴), La Vie by Thomas Buhner, Yuan Yi (元一) and Frassi in Taipei and Front House (方蒔) in Kaohsiung received a one-star rating for the first time. Hosu is known for innovative Taiwanese dishes, while Chuan Ya serves Sichuan cuisine and aMaze specializes
STATS: Taiwan’s average life expectancy of 80.77 years was lower than that of Japan, Singapore and South Korea, but higher than in China, Malaysia and Indonesia Taiwan’s average life expectancy last year increased to 80.77 years, but was still not back to its pre-COVID-19 pandemic peak of 81.32 years in 2020, the Ministry of the Interior said yesterday. The average life expectancy last year increased the 0.54 years from 2023, the ministry said in a statement. For men and women, the average life expectancy last year was 77.42 years and 84.30 years respectively, up 0.48 years and 0.56 years from the previous year. Taiwan’s average life expectancy peaked at 81.32 years in 2020, as the nation was relatively unaffected by the pandemic that year. The metric
Taitung County is to launch charter flights to Malaysia at the end of this year, after setting up flights to Vietnam and Thailand, the Taitung County Government said yesterday. The new charter flight services, provided by low-cost carrier Batik Air Malaysia, would be part of five-day tour packages for visits to Taitung County or Malaysia. The Batik Air charter flight, with about 200 seats, would take Malaysian tourists to Taitung on Dec. 30 and then at 12:35pm return to Kuala Lumpur with Taiwanese tourists. Another charter flight would bring the Taiwanese home on Jan. 3 next year, arriving at 5:30pm, before taking the
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp. (THSRC) plans to ease strained capacity during peak hours by introducing new fare rules restricting passengers traveling without reserved seats in 2026, company Chairman Shih Che (史哲) said Wednesday. THSRC needs to tackle its capacity issue because there have been several occasions where passengers holding tickets with reserved seats did not make it onto their train in stations packed with individuals traveling without a reserved seat, Shih told reporters in a joint interview in Taipei. Non-reserved seats allow travelers maximum flexibility, but it has led to issues relating to quality of service and safety concerns, especially during
RSS