A university prediction center yesterday said there was a 47 percent chance that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) would win next year’s presidential election, although the probability that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) or Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would step into the Presidential Office was almost on a par.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, Future Events Trading Co said the probability that Ma would be re-elected was NT$47, while his odds of his representing the KMT, of which he is chairman, were NT$90.20 as of yesterday.
The probability that DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would be nominated as her party’s presidential candidate was NT$57.50. Other potential DPP candidates were former premiers Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) at NT$27.40 and NT$13.20 respectively. Former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) was NT$0.30.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the possibility of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
Regardless of who represents the KMT or the DPP in next year’s election, the center said the chances that the two parties’ candidates would win were roughly the same. The latest price for the KMT was NT$51.20 against NT$50.70 for the DPP.
Among the potential candidates, Ma remained the most formidable contender, with a price of NT$47.40 compared with Tsai’s NT$29.70, Su’s NT$12.90 and Hsieh’s NT$10.80.
Lu’s price was NT$0.10, lower than People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) at NT$2 and former DPP chairman Lin I-hsiung (林義雄) at NT$1.30.
Meanwhile, Future Events Trading Co yesterday launched its “Democracy 2.0” project, which will serve as a clearinghouse for various online interaction platforms between the public and government, including predictions of elections, public selections of candidates, surveys on government performance and policy innovations.
Tung Chen-yuan (童振源), the director of National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center, which organized the project, said they hoped the mechanism would provide a platform for timely, progressive and sustained democratic interaction between the public and politicians.
“The public can only feel it is the real master of this country when an election is held and only during elections are politicians humble and have the voters in mind,” Tung said.
The Citizen Congress Watch and New Talk organizations have joined the Democracy 2.0 Action Alliance, Tung said, adding that they hoped to see more civic groups or media organizations come on board.