A university prediction center yesterday said there was a 47 percent chance that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) would win next year’s presidential election, although the probability that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) or Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would step into the Presidential Office was almost on a par.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, Future Events Trading Co said the probability that Ma would be re-elected was NT$47, while his odds of his representing the KMT, of which he is chairman, were NT$90.20 as of yesterday.
The probability that DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would be nominated as her party’s presidential candidate was NT$57.50. Other potential DPP candidates were former premiers Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) at NT$27.40 and NT$13.20 respectively. Former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) was NT$0.30.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the possibility of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
Regardless of who represents the KMT or the DPP in next year’s election, the center said the chances that the two parties’ candidates would win were roughly the same. The latest price for the KMT was NT$51.20 against NT$50.70 for the DPP.
Among the potential candidates, Ma remained the most formidable contender, with a price of NT$47.40 compared with Tsai’s NT$29.70, Su’s NT$12.90 and Hsieh’s NT$10.80.
Lu’s price was NT$0.10, lower than People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) at NT$2 and former DPP chairman Lin I-hsiung (林義雄) at NT$1.30.
Meanwhile, Future Events Trading Co yesterday launched its “Democracy 2.0” project, which will serve as a clearinghouse for various online interaction platforms between the public and government, including predictions of elections, public selections of candidates, surveys on government performance and policy innovations.
Tung Chen-yuan (童振源), the director of National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center, which organized the project, said they hoped the mechanism would provide a platform for timely, progressive and sustained democratic interaction between the public and politicians.
“The public can only feel it is the real master of this country when an election is held and only during elections are politicians humble and have the voters in mind,” Tung said.
The Citizen Congress Watch and New Talk organizations have joined the Democracy 2.0 Action Alliance, Tung said, adding that they hoped to see more civic groups or media organizations come on board.
FINAL COUNTDOWN: About 50,000 attended a pro-recall rally yesterday, while the KMT and the TPP plan to rally against the recall votes today Democracy activists, together with arts and education representatives, yesterday organized a motorcade, while thousands gathered on Ketagalan Boulevard in Taipei in the evening in support of tomorrow’s recall votes. Recall votes for 24 Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers and suspended Hsinchu City mayor Ann Kao (高虹安) are to be held tomorrow, while recall votes for seven other KMT lawmakers are scheduled for Aug. 23. The afternoon motorcade was led by the Spring Breeze Culture and Arts Foundation, the Tyzen Hsiao Foundation and the Friends of Lee Teng-hui Association, and was joined by delegates from the Taiwan Statebuilding Party and the Taiwan Solidarity
Instead of threatening tariffs on Taiwan-made chips, the US should try to reinforce cooperation with Taiwan on semiconductor development to take on challenges from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a Taiwanese think tank said. The administration of US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board import duties of 32 percent on Taiwan-made goods and levy a separate tariff on semiconductors, which Taiwan is hoping to avoid. The Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET), a National Science and Technology Council think tank, said that US efforts should focus on containing China’s semiconductor rise rather than impairing Taiwan. “Without
An SOS message in a bottle has been found in Ireland that is believed to have come from the Taiwanese captain of fishing vessel Yong Yu Sing No. 18 (永裕興18號), who has been missing without a trace for over four years, along with nine Indonesian crew members. The vessel, registered to Suao (蘇澳), went missing near Hawaii on Dec. 30, 2020. The ship has since been recovered, but the 10 crew members have never been found. The captain, surnamed Lee (李), is believed to have signed the note with his name. A post appeared on Reddit on Tuesday after a man
President William Lai (賴清德) today condemned an alleged attempt by two Chinese to snatch a letter of congratulations handed to Taiwan’s taekwondo team after they won silver at the Summer World University Games in Essen, Germany, yesterday. A Chinese man and woman reportedly tried to snatch a congratulatory letter to athletes Hung Jiun-yi (洪俊義), Jung Jiun-jie (鍾俊傑) and Huang Cho-cheng (黃卓乘) from the Ministry of Education, and then argued with media employees. “Why are you taking our things?” the media employees asked. “Does that say Chinese Taipei?” the two Chinese reportedly said. Following the incident, Sports Administration Director-General Cheng Shih-chung (鄭世忠) wrote on
RSS