A poll by the Chinese-language United Daily News (UDN) showing Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) mayoral candidate Eric Chu (朱立倫) enjoying a commanding lead over his rival, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), for the race in Sinbei City (as it will be called following Taipei County’s upgrade) was at odds with other surveys, sparking speculation by the DPP that someone may be massaging the numbers.
Released as the paper’s lead story yesterday, the poll found Chu leading Tsai among Taipei County voters 45 percent to 28 percent, with 26 percent still undecided. The results were similar to a survey taken by the newspaper in May, which showed Chu ahead by 19 points.
However, the numbers painted a very different picture from polls produced by another survey and released by the DPP yesterday, which showed the difference to be less than 1 percent, and therefore within the margin of error.
“We were very surprised by their [UDN] findings ... most other polls [from newspapers and TV news channels] show the difference is between 1 percent and 7 percent,” DPP poll director Chen Chun-lin (陳俊麟) said.
The DPP poll showed that 44.4 percent of voters supported Chu, against Tsai’s 43.5 percent. The opposition party said that the margin had been consistent in its past three surveys.
The DPP’s findings were also similar to a survey published by the Chinese-language China Times on July 13, which found Tsai leading Chu by 1 percent, or 40 percent to 39 percent. In August, TVBS news also conducted a poll putting the difference between the two candidates at about 7 percent, with Chu at 47 percent and Tsai at 40 percent.
While the UDN and DPP telephone surveys were conducted around the same period last week, the opposition party’s survey involved about 1,730 potential voters — more than twice the amount polled by the newspaper. Both maintained that the numbers called were randomly chosen.
Commenting on the disparity, Tsai said during a campaign stop in Linkou Township (林口), Taipei County, that the race was “very close,” adding that she stood by the results of the DPP poll.
“The most [we can] make of the UDN poll is as a reference because of its wide difference with other surveys,” she said.
Meanwhile, speaking in Sijhih City (汐止), Taipei County, Chu did not comment on the DPP survey, but said he was cautiously optimistic about the UDN poll. He told supporters the numbers could be very different come election day and vowed to continue working on increasing his lead.
Chu also said he expected Tsai to engage in mudslinging and other personal attacks against him.
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