Candidates of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are neck-and-neck in both Taipei and Sinbei cities ahead of November’s special municipality elections, according to a university prediction center.
National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center yesterday said DPP candidates in Taipei and Sinbei have caught up with their KMT counterparts.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of DPP candidate Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) winning the Taipei poll grew from NT$48 last month to NT$49 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the bidding price of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) fell from NT$53 to NT$49.
In Sinbei, the value of DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who is running for Sinbei mayor, has grown from NT$40.25 when the party announced her candidacy in May to NT$49.3 on Tuesday. The likelihood of her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), winning dropped from NT$52 last month to NT$49.3.
The KMT holds a seemingly insurmountable advantage in Greater Taichung, the center said.
KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continues to lead, but the gap is narrowing, especially after an alleged gang leader was shot dead in the city late in May. The possibility of Hu winning dropped dramatically from NT$77 to NT$67 after his DPP opponent Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) announced his candidacy on May 23. Hu’s value dropped to as low as NT$57.6 following the shooting. His price rebounded to NT$66.6 on Tuesday.
Su’s price reached NT$35 on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates continue to hold significant leads in the south. The chances of winning in Greater Kaohsiung for Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) remains high. The possibility of Chen winning the poll had remained between NT$66 and NT$70 before falling to NT$62.32 in May — its lowest level since she announced her candidacy on May 5. It rose to NT$89.2 last month, but dropped to NT$79.3 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), remained in the range of NT$12 and NT$16. The latest price was NT$16.8.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, with Lai remaining between NT$87 and NT$90 and Kuo fluctuating between NT$10 to NT$17. The latest values as of Tuesday for Lai and Kuo were NT$90.2 and NT$15.5, respectively.
Taiwanese scientists have engineered plants that can capture about 50 percent more carbon dioxide and produce more than twice as many seeds as unmodified plants, a breakthrough they hope could one day help mitigate global warming and grow more food staples such as rice. If applied to major food crops, the new system could cut carbon emissions and raise yields “without additional equipment or labor costs,” Academia Sinica researcher and lead author the study Lu Kuan-jen (呂冠箴) said. Academia Sinica president James Liao (廖俊智) said that as humans emit 9.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide compared with the 220 billion tonnes absorbed
The Taipei Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Wanda-Zhonghe Line is 81.7 percent complete, with public opening targeted for the end of 2027, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) said today. Surrounding roads are to be open to the public by the end of next year, Hou said during an inspection of construction progress. The 9.5km line, featuring nine underground stations and one depot, is expected to connect Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall Station to Chukuang Station in New Taipei City’s Jhonghe District (中和). All 18 tunnels for the line are complete, while the main structures of the stations and depot are mostly finished, he
Taipei is to implement widespread road closures around Taipei 101 on Friday to make way for large crowds during the Double Ten National Day celebration, the Taipei Department of Transportation said. A four-minute fireworks display is to be launched from the skyscraper, along with a performance by 500 drones flying in formation above the nearby Nanshan A21 site, starting at 10pm. Vehicle restrictions would occur in phases, they said. From 5pm to 9pm, inner lanes of Songshou Road between Taipei City Hall and Taipei 101 are to be closed, with only the outer lanes remaining open. Between 9pm and 9:40pm, the section is
China’s plan to deploy a new hypersonic ballistic missile at a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) base near Taiwan likely targets US airbases and ships in the western Pacific, but it would also present new threats to Taiwan, defense experts said. The New York Times — citing a US Department of Defense report from last year on China’s military power — on Monday reported in an article titled “The missiles threatening Taiwan” that China has stockpiled 3,500 missiles, 1.5 times more than four years earlier. Although it is unclear how many of those missiles were targeting Taiwan, the newspaper reported