Candidates of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) are neck-and-neck in both Taipei and Sinbei cities ahead of November’s special municipality elections, according to a university prediction center.
National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center yesterday said DPP candidates in Taipei and Sinbei have caught up with their KMT counterparts.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of DPP candidate Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) winning the Taipei poll grew from NT$48 last month to NT$49 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the bidding price of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) fell from NT$53 to NT$49.
In Sinbei, the value of DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who is running for Sinbei mayor, has grown from NT$40.25 when the party announced her candidacy in May to NT$49.3 on Tuesday. The likelihood of her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), winning dropped from NT$52 last month to NT$49.3.
The KMT holds a seemingly insurmountable advantage in Greater Taichung, the center said.
KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) continues to lead, but the gap is narrowing, especially after an alleged gang leader was shot dead in the city late in May. The possibility of Hu winning dropped dramatically from NT$77 to NT$67 after his DPP opponent Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) announced his candidacy on May 23. Hu’s value dropped to as low as NT$57.6 following the shooting. His price rebounded to NT$66.6 on Tuesday.
Su’s price reached NT$35 on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, DPP candidates continue to hold significant leads in the south. The chances of winning in Greater Kaohsiung for Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) remains high. The possibility of Chen winning the poll had remained between NT$66 and NT$70 before falling to NT$62.32 in May — its lowest level since she announced her candidacy on May 5. It rose to NT$89.2 last month, but dropped to NT$79.3 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), remained in the range of NT$12 and NT$16. The latest price was NT$16.8.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, with Lai remaining between NT$87 and NT$90 and Kuo fluctuating between NT$10 to NT$17. The latest values as of Tuesday for Lai and Kuo were NT$90.2 and NT$15.5, respectively.

The German city of Hamburg on Oct. 14 named a bridge “Kaohsiung-Brucke” after the Taiwanese city of Kaohsiung. The footbridge, formerly known as F566, is to the east of the Speicherstadt, the world’s largest warehouse district, and connects the Dar-es-Salaam-Platz to the Brooktorpromenade near the Port of Hamburg on the Elbe River. Timo Fischer, a Free Democratic Party member of the Hamburg-Mitte District Assembly, in May last year proposed the name change with support from members of the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Democratic Union. Kaohsiung and Hamburg in 1999 inked a sister city agreement, but despite more than a quarter-century of

Taiwanese officials are courting podcasters and influencers aligned with US President Donald Trump as they grow more worried the US leader could undermine Taiwanese interests in talks with China, people familiar with the matter said. Trump has said Taiwan would likely be on the agenda when he is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) next week in a bid to resolve persistent trade tensions. China has asked the White House to officially declare it “opposes” Taiwanese independence, Bloomberg reported last month, a concession that would mark a major diplomatic win for Beijing. President William Lai (賴清德) and his top officials

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) yesterday expressed “grave concerns” after Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong (黃循財) reiterated the city-state’s opposition to “Taiwanese independence” during a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (李強). In Singapore on Saturday, Wong and Li discussed cross-strait developments, the Singaporean Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. “Prime Minister Wong reiterated that Singapore has a clear and consistent ‘one China’ policy and is opposed to Taiwan independence,” it said. MOFA responded that it is an objective fact and a common understanding shared by many that the Republic of China (ROC) is an independent, sovereign nation, with world-leading

‘ONE CHINA’: A statement that Berlin decides its own China policy did not seem to sit well with Beijing, which offered only one meeting with the German official German Minister for Foreign Affairs Johann Wadephul’s trip to China has been canceled, a spokesperson for his ministry said yesterday, amid rising tensions between the two nations, including over Taiwan. Wadephul had planned to address Chinese curbs on rare earths during his visit, but his comments about Berlin deciding on the “design” of its “one China” policy ahead of the trip appear to have rankled China. Asked about Wadephul’s comments, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Guo Jiakun (郭嘉昆) said the “one China principle” has “no room for any self-definition.” In the interview published on Thursday, Wadephul said he would urge China to