The likelihood of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 dropped to a new low yesterday after his party lost three seats in legislative by-elections on Saturday, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$36.80.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
Since Ma took over as Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman in October, the number has steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5, the center said.
The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in early December and hit NT$45.30 on Dec. 25 after the cross-strait talks between Straits Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) and Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) on Dec. 22.
The center predicted on Dec. 30 that the KMT would lose all three seats in Saturday’s by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties.
The center also correctly predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the “three-in-one” local elections on Dec. 5, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would gain one.
The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections. The DPP secured four areas, receiving 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.
The center, opened in 2006, makes predictions on various issues, including politics, economy, cross-strait affairs, international affairs, social affairs, sports and entertainment. It has attracted bidders from Taiwan and 100 other countries, including China and the US.
As of Nov. 20, the center had issued 11,553 contracts, accumulating more than 124 million trading entries. The center said the hottest issues have included the 2006 mayoral elections in Kaohsiung and Taipei, the 2008 legislative and presidential elections and last month’s “three-in-one” local elections.
Meanwhile, two media outlets seen as “pan-blue” said yesterday that Ma could face a humiliating defeat in the 2012 presidential election.
The Chinese-language China Times said the results were “another warning to Ma and his party.”
“If the Ma administration is unable to display its capability to rule the country and win back the trust of people ... the ruling party could plunge into difficulties in the coming elections and even the 2012 presidential polls,” the newspaper said in an editorial.
The Chinese-language United Daily News said “the outcome may be another sign of ‘domino effect’ in the more decisive elections this year,” referring to elections in five municipalities later this year and the legislative polls next year.
Ma’s popularity fell to about 33 percent last month, compared with 52 percent in May last year, a survey released by the United Daily News said.
Various opinion polls have indicated that a large segment of Taiwanese are critical of Ma’s crisis management skills, including the government’s handling of the beef import dispute with the US.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY AFP
FUKUOKA SITUATION: Japanese media reported that the pathogen is expected to be identified by the summer, while the CDC downplayed the idea that it was hMPV A “mysterious cold-like illness” reported in Japan’s Fukuoka Prefecture does not seem to be a new disease, but Japanese authorities have been asked about the situation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said yesterday. The Fukuoka Prefectural Medical Association on Wednesday told a news conference that a “mystery cold” that has become a hot topic on social media is “highly likely to be caused by some kind of viral infection,” Japan’s KBC News reported. “Many people are experiencing symptoms starting with a sore throat, followed by a runny nose, phlegm and a severe cough,” KBC News reported, citing association officials. Health authorities are
Nvidia Corp CEO Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) arrived in Taiwan yesterday ahead of upcoming AI and technology events, saying he plans to meet with clients and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家) during his visit. After landing at Taipei Songshan Airport, Huang posed for photos with fans and handed out Yakult drinks to reporters and supporters waiting at the scene, saying he has “a lot to do” during the trip. Asked about reports that Nvidia’s planned headquarters site in Taipei’s Beitou Shilin Technology Park could break ground on May 27, Huang said that if the company holds an event, he would
Carrefour Taiwan is to begin using a new name from the start of July, but it cannot divulge the name until then, the chairman of the supermarket chain's parent company said today. President Chain Store Co chairman Lo Chih-hsien (羅智先) was asked by reporters after a shareholders' meeting to confirm whether the company has settled on a new name for the supermarket brand. In March, the government-registered name of two Carrefour Taiwan branches was quietly changed to "Le Chia Kang" (樂家康) in Chinese, raising speculation that has been selected as the name. Lo said that because of local regulations and contractual obligations, the
The Philippines would likely be involved in any conflict over Taiwan due to its proximity to the democracy claimed by China, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said, reiterating a stance that risks angering Beijing. “In the Philippines, we do not have a choice because Taiwan is so close to the Philippines and we have almost 200,000 Filipino nationals living and working in Taiwan,” Marcos said in an interview with Japanese media in Manila on Monday. The Philippine leader’s comments come ahead of a state visit to Japan next week, where he is to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to discuss security
RSS