The likelihood of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 dropped to a new low yesterday after his party lost three seats in legislative by-elections on Saturday, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$36.80.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
Since Ma took over as Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman in October, the number has steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5, the center said.
The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in early December and hit NT$45.30 on Dec. 25 after the cross-strait talks between Straits Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) and Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) on Dec. 22.
The center predicted on Dec. 30 that the KMT would lose all three seats in Saturday’s by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties.
The center also correctly predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the “three-in-one” local elections on Dec. 5, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would gain one.
The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections. The DPP secured four areas, receiving 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.
The center, opened in 2006, makes predictions on various issues, including politics, economy, cross-strait affairs, international affairs, social affairs, sports and entertainment. It has attracted bidders from Taiwan and 100 other countries, including China and the US.
As of Nov. 20, the center had issued 11,553 contracts, accumulating more than 124 million trading entries. The center said the hottest issues have included the 2006 mayoral elections in Kaohsiung and Taipei, the 2008 legislative and presidential elections and last month’s “three-in-one” local elections.
Meanwhile, two media outlets seen as “pan-blue” said yesterday that Ma could face a humiliating defeat in the 2012 presidential election.
The Chinese-language China Times said the results were “another warning to Ma and his party.”
“If the Ma administration is unable to display its capability to rule the country and win back the trust of people ... the ruling party could plunge into difficulties in the coming elections and even the 2012 presidential polls,” the newspaper said in an editorial.
The Chinese-language United Daily News said “the outcome may be another sign of ‘domino effect’ in the more decisive elections this year,” referring to elections in five municipalities later this year and the legislative polls next year.
Ma’s popularity fell to about 33 percent last month, compared with 52 percent in May last year, a survey released by the United Daily News said.
Various opinion polls have indicated that a large segment of Taiwanese are critical of Ma’s crisis management skills, including the government’s handling of the beef import dispute with the US.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY AFP
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