The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is likely to win all three seats in next month’s legislative by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties, a university prediction market said yesterday.
The Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said that, on a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of a DPP victory according to bidders as of 10:30am yesterday was NT$80.9 in Taoyuan County, NT$65.0 in Taichung County and NT$87.9 in Taitung County.
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidates were rated at NT$17.1 in Taoyuan County, at NT$25.1 in Taichung County and at NT$17.8 in Taitung County.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. The Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University covers politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment.
Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
The three by-elections will be held on Jan. 9.
The vote in Taoyuan County is being held following the invalidation of the election of the KMT’s Liao Cheng-ching (廖正井) following his conviction for vote-buying.
The KMT has nominated Chen Li-ling (陳麗玲) as its new candidate. She will be running against the DPP’s Kuo June-tsung (郭榮宗).
The Taichung legislative by-election will be held to fill the seat left vacant by former KMT legislator Chiang Lien-fu (江連福), whose election status was also annulled over vote-buying. Taiping Mayor Yu Wen-chin (余文欽) is standing against the DPP’s Chien Chao-tung (簡肇棟).
KMT Legislator Justin Huang (黃健庭) resigned in October to run in this month’s Taitung County commissioner election, making him the seventh lawmaker in the current legislature to fail to complete his legislative term.
The KMT nominated Taitung County Commissioner Kuang Li-chen (鄺麗貞) to run in the county’s legislative by-election amid claims by the DPP that the nomination was a trade-off for an undertaking not to seek re-election as county commissioner. Kuang’s DPP rival is Lai Kun-cheng (賴坤成).
The center accurately predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the local elections on Dec. 5, while the DPP would gain one.
The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections.
Although the DPP secured only four areas, it received 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.
UNDER INVESTIGATION: Huang’s body was found just outside the bathroom and showed no signs of a struggle, and no alcohol or drugs were found Singer and actor Alien Huang (黃鴻升) was found dead at his home in Taipei’s Beitou District (北投) yesterday. He was 36. Huang was also known by the nickname Xiao Gui (“little ghost”). His body was found when his father went to check on him after being unable to reach him by telephone, and called emergency services to the house at 11am, the Taipei City Police Department said. Huang’s body, which was discovered just outside the bathroom, showed no signs of a physical struggle, and he appeared to have been dead for some time, police said, adding that no drugs or alcohol were
CONFIRMED IN PHILIPPINES: The CECC would conduct contact tracing for the migrant workers to determine if they had come into contact with elderly people or children Six Filipinos tested positive for COVID-19 upon returning home from Taiwan, the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) said yesterday as it reported a case of imported COVID-19 infection, bringing the number of confirmed cases in Taiwan to 500. Philippine authorities reported four of the cases through the National IHR Focal Point, while the other two were reported by the company that they had worked for in Taiwan. The six — five women and one man — are aged from their 20s to 40s, and worked as in-home care workers, domestic workers, factory workers and sailors in Taiwan, said Minister of Health and
FEELING MISUNDERSTOOD: Media speculation has fueled confusion about the KMT’s reasons for skipping a Chinese forum and delaying an AIT meeting, party sources said The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) on Sunday said that it is not seeking to improve relations with the US or China at the expense of the other, and that its relations with the countries would be topic-based. The party has faced questions over its foreign policy after it on Monday last week announced its withdrawal from the annual Straits Forum and delayed planned talks with the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT). The party has also taken a tough stance on the importation of US meat containing ractopamine, while also lambasting China for increasing its military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait. Following
The COVID-19 pandemic might not have originated from a seafood market in Wuhan, China, National Taiwan University College of Public Health professor Tony Chen (陳秀熙) said yesterday. While many countries are experiencing second waves of COVID-19 infections, many are also lifting lockdowns to revive their economies, allowing travelers to cross national borders, Chen said. Academics have been questioning whether genetic mutations in the novel coronavirus in different countries have made it more infectious, he added. Academics from different backgrounds have conducted phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences, he said, adding that the studies can help scientists understand how the virus spread among