The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is likely to win all three seats in next month’s legislative by-elections in Taoyuan, Taichung and Taitung counties, a university prediction market said yesterday.
The Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said that, on a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of a DPP victory according to bidders as of 10:30am yesterday was NT$80.9 in Taoyuan County, NT$65.0 in Taichung County and NT$87.9 in Taitung County.
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidates were rated at NT$17.1 in Taoyuan County, at NT$25.1 in Taichung County and at NT$17.8 in Taitung County.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. The Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University covers politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment.
Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
The three by-elections will be held on Jan. 9.
The vote in Taoyuan County is being held following the invalidation of the election of the KMT’s Liao Cheng-ching (廖正井) following his conviction for vote-buying.
The KMT has nominated Chen Li-ling (陳麗玲) as its new candidate. She will be running against the DPP’s Kuo June-tsung (郭榮宗).
The Taichung legislative by-election will be held to fill the seat left vacant by former KMT legislator Chiang Lien-fu (江連福), whose election status was also annulled over vote-buying. Taiping Mayor Yu Wen-chin (余文欽) is standing against the DPP’s Chien Chao-tung (簡肇棟).
KMT Legislator Justin Huang (黃健庭) resigned in October to run in this month’s Taitung County commissioner election, making him the seventh lawmaker in the current legislature to fail to complete his legislative term.
The KMT nominated Taitung County Commissioner Kuang Li-chen (鄺麗貞) to run in the county’s legislative by-election amid claims by the DPP that the nomination was a trade-off for an undertaking not to seek re-election as county commissioner. Kuang’s DPP rival is Lai Kun-cheng (賴坤成).
The center accurately predicted that the KMT would lose three seats in the local elections on Dec. 5, while the DPP would gain one.
The KMT clinched 12 of the 17 counties and cities in the elections for city mayor and county commissioner, garnering 47.88 percent of the total votes, a drop of 2 percent from the 2005 elections.
Although the DPP secured only four areas, it received 45.32 percent of the total ballots, a 7.2 percent increase.
The Ministry of Education (MOE) is to launch a new program to encourage international students to stay in Taiwan and explore job opportunities here after graduation, Deputy Minister of Education Yeh Ping-cheng (葉丙成) said on Friday. The government would provide full scholarships for international students to further their studies for two years in Taiwan, so those who want to pursue a master’s degree can consider applying for the program, he said. The fields included are science, technology, engineering, mathematics, semiconductors and finance, Yeh added. The program, called “Intense 2+2,” would also assist international students who completed the two years of further studies in
Former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) departed for Europe on Friday night, with planned stops in Lithuania and Denmark. Tsai arrived at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport on Friday night, but did not speak to reporters before departing. Tsai wrote on social media later that the purpose of the trip was to reaffirm the commitment of Taiwanese to working with democratic allies to promote regional security and stability, upholding freedom and democracy, and defending their homeland. She also expressed hope that through joint efforts, Taiwan and Europe would continue to be partners building up economic resilience on the global stage. The former president was to first
Taiwan will now have four additional national holidays after the Legislative Yuan passed an amendment today, which also made Labor Day a national holiday for all sectors. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) used their majority in the Legislative Yuan to pass the amendment to the Act on Implementing Memorial Days and State Holidays (紀念日及節日實施辦法), which the parties jointly proposed, in its third and final reading today. The legislature passed the bill to amend the act, which is currently enforced administratively, raising it to the legal level. The new legislation recognizes Confucius’ birthday on Sept. 28, the
The Taipei District Court sentenced babysitters Liu Tsai-hsuan (劉彩萱) and Liu Jou-lin (劉若琳) to life and 18 years in prison respectively today for causing the death of a one-year-old boy in December 2023. The Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office said that Liu Tsai-hsuan was entrusted with the care of a one-year-old boy, nicknamed Kai Kai (剴剴), in August 2023 by the Child Welfare League Foundation. From Sept. 1 to Dec. 23 that year, she and her sister Liu Jou-lin allegedly committed acts of abuse against the boy, who was rushed to the hospital with severe injuries on Dec. 24, 2023, but did not
RSS