David Brown, an expert on US-Taiwan relations, is urging US President Barack Obama to sell Taipei the military hardware it has requested to deter a possible attack by China.
“Officials in the Ma administration have privately expressed concern that Beijing is pressing Taipei to move beyond economics and to begin addressing political and security issues,” Brown wrote in a new analysis published by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
At the same time, he said, there is evidence that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has increased to more than 1,500 the number of short and medium range missiles it has placed across the strait from Taiwan.
Brown added that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has set the removal of these missiles as a precondition for reaching a peace agreement but that experts in Beijing have indicated that changes in Chinese weapons deployment and the implementation of other military confidence building measures would only come after the conclusion of a peace agreement.
Although Kurt Campbell has been assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs for several months, the Obama administration has not yet notified Congress of even routine arms sales to Taiwan.
“Most notably,” wrote Brown, “no action has been taken on the long-standing and less sensitive sale of Blackhawk helicopters.”
Brown concludes that this does not appear to reflect any basic shift in US policy but rather involves “decision and timing considerations.”
He quoted press reports that the administration is conducting a review of arms sales to Taiwan.
“Taipei has made it clear that its highest priority remains acquisition of F-16C/D aircraft and it continues to work discreetly with the US on that and other arms sales issues. For its part, Beijing has used opportunities such as the visit of US Army Chief of Staff George Casey to forcefully remind Washington of their opposition to arms sales, particularly F-16s,” he said.
It is highly unlikely that Obama will make any announcement on arms sales to Taiwan this year and he is expected to be heavily influenced by his trip to China next month.
Brown’s published analysis is the latest in a series of attempts by US politicians, academics and diplomats who are considered sympathetic to Taiwan to influence the White House and bring some balance to the arms sales decision. Brown, a US diplomat for 30 years who served in Taipei and now teaches in the China Studies Department of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, believes that when cross-strait relations are moving constructively, the US government’s role is limited.
But he wrote that arms sales are “one important exception” that needs to be handled in a sophisticated way to support the long-term US interest in a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues.
Brown said that it is in the US’ interest to support a government in Taiwan that is working constructively to consolidate a stable, peaceful cross-strait relationship.
Taipei is requesting arms, he said, to maintain a credible deterrent position from which to negotiate.
“Furthermore,” Brown said, “as the Ma administration is being criticized at home for not doing enough for Taiwan’s defense, the fact that there has been little concrete evidence of support for Taipei from the Obama administration is calling into question Ma’s ability to successfully manage the all important US-Taiwan relationship.”
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