The visit of Chinese cross-strait negotiator Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) would not help boost the number of Chinese tourists to Taiwan nor would it increase the possibility of signing a cross-strait common market or peace agreement with China, the latest analysis released by a prediction center showed.
The study, conducted by National Chengchi University's Center for Prediction Markets, found that the market was not optimistic about the impact of Chen's visit on the number of Chinese visiting Taiwan.
During his visit early last month, Chen signed four agreements with his Taiwanese counterpart, Straits Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤). The four agreements covered cross-strait aviation routes, sea transportation links, postal services and a food safety mechanism.
The administration hopes that with more convenient cross-strait transportation, more Chinese tourists would visit Taiwan and boost the economy.
However, the possibility that the number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan would not exceed that of the previous two years rose to 85 percent after Chen's visit, from 82 percent, the report said.
Statistics showed that more than 98,000 Chinese tourists visited Taiwan in 2006, but the number dropped to about 81,000 last year. The center predicted that the number of Chinese visitors this year would not surpass the numbers of the past two years.
The chances that Taiwan and China would not sign an agreement on setting up a cross-strait common market increased from 93 percent to 98 percent, the report said. The likelihood that both sides would not sign a peace pact also rose from 95 percent to 99 percent.
The center said that although tensions in the Taiwan Strait had eased since the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) came to power, the public remained cautious about the possibility of an end to cross-strait hostilities or progress in cross-strait relations.
Despite the four accords signed between Chen and Chiang last month, the report said the odds that Taipei and Beijing would sign a pact to end hostilities or advance peace were as little as 1 percent.
By the same token, the public was pessimistic about the probability that both sides would sign an accord on establishing a cross-strait common market.
However, the public seemed to have high hopes for the two giant pandas that China has offered as gifts to Taiwan.
The plausibility that the pair would come to Taiwan this month surged to 79 percent after Chen's visit from 39 percent before.
The center makes predictions on various issues, including politics, economy, cross-strait affairs, international affairs, social affairs, sports and entertainment. Those interested in future predictions are welcome to join the future event-trading house, Swarchy. Members can tender virtual bidding on diverse events and the bidding price will serve as the reference for the predictions on the targeted issues.
A group of Taiwanese-American and Tibetan-American students at Harvard University on Saturday disrupted Chinese Ambassador to the US Xie Feng’s (謝鋒) speech at the school, accusing him of being responsible for numerous human rights violations. Four students — two Taiwanese Americans and two from Tibet — held up banners inside a conference hall where Xie was delivering a speech at the opening ceremony of the Harvard Kennedy School China Conference 2024. In a video clip provided by the Coalition of Students Resisting the CCP (Chinese Communist Party), Taiwanese-American Cosette Wu (吳亭樺) and Tibetan-American Tsering Yangchen are seen holding banners that together read:
UNAWARE: Many people sit for long hours every day and eat unhealthy foods, putting them at greater risk of developing one of the ‘three highs,’ an expert said More than 30 percent of adults aged 40 or older who underwent a government-funded health exam were unaware they had at least one of the “three highs” — high blood pressure, high blood lipids or high blood sugar, the Health Promotion Administration (HPA) said yesterday. Among adults aged 40 or older who said they did not have any of the “three highs” before taking the health exam, more than 30 percent were found to have at least one of them, Adult Preventive Health Examination Service data from 2022 showed. People with long-term medical conditions such as hypertension or diabetes usually do not
POLICE INVESTIGATING: A man said he quit his job as a nurse at Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital as he had been ‘disgusted’ by the behavior of his colleagues A man yesterday morning wrote online that he had witnessed nurses taking photographs and touching anesthetized patients inappropriately in Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital’s operating theaters. The man surnamed Huang (黃) wrote on the Professional Technology Temple bulletin board that during his six-month stint as a nurse at the hospital, he had seen nurses taking pictures of patients, including of their private parts, after they were anesthetized. Some nurses had also touched patients inappropriately and children were among those photographed, he said. Huang said this “disgusted” him “so much” that “he felt the need to reveal these unethical acts in the operating theater
Heat advisories were in effect for nine administrative regions yesterday afternoon as warm southwesterly winds pushed temperatures above 38°C in parts of southern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. As of 3:30pm yesterday, Tainan’s Yujing District (玉井) had recorded the day’s highest temperature of 39.7°C, though the measurement will not be included in Taiwan’s official heat records since Yujing is an automatic rather than manually operated weather station, the CWA said. Highs recorded in other areas were 38.7°C in Kaohsiung’s Neimen District (內門), 38.2°C in Chiayi City and 38.1°C in Pingtung’s Sandimen Township (三地門), CWA data showed. The spell of scorching