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ANALYSIS:Official shares insight on ‘diplomatic truce’ strategy

Taiwan is forgoing its quest to become a UN member this year in a goodwill gesture that is expected to see the country accepted next year as an observer in the World Health Assembly (WHA), which is the decision-making body of the WHO, a high-ranking official said.

The official, who is involved in the government’s foreign policy formulation, elaborated on President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) diplomatic logic last week on condition of anonymity.

Since 1993, the general committees of successive sessions of the UN General Assembly have all refused Taiwan’s request to consider its full membership in the world body after it forfeited its seat to the People’s Republic of China in 1971.

Unlike in previous years, this year’s UN proposal asks the 63rd UN General Assembly, which will open on Sept. 16, to pass a resolution that would allow Taiwan’s “meaningful participation” in the 16 auxiliary agencies of the UN.

“The specialized agency of the UN that we are aiming for is the WHA,” the official said, referring to Ma’s previous remarks that his administration would work towards Taiwan’s observership in the WHA next year, as has been done in past years.

Describing Taiwan’s participation in the WHA next year as the “most important goal at this stage,” the official said the government is “optimistic” about the chances of success.

The official didn’t predict how far Taiwan would be able to advance in its UN bid this year, but expressed optimism that the proposal would bear fruit in the campaign to gain observer status in the WHA, a bid that has failed for 12 consecutive years since 1997.

The official said China has acknowledged Taiwan’s need for international space, with priority placed on Taiwan’s participation in WHO activities, as seen in the “five-point pact” signed by former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) in 2005.

“Aside from that, the executive branch and the legislative branch of the US, Japan, the EU and our allies all support observer status for Taiwan in the WHA,” the official said.

The government is set to make the appeal to the international community.

A government source said that Minister of Foreign Affairs Francisco Ou (歐鴻鍊) communicated the UN proposal to the US and Japan on Aug. 11, and senior officials within the ministry have also talked over the plan with the EU, Singapore and the nation’s allies.

After assuming office in May, Ma called for a “diplomatic truce” with China in an attempt to end a longstanding tug-of-war between the two countries, in which both sides have tried to lure each other’s allies to switch diplomatic allegiance by offering large sums of money.

During his first state visit in Paraguay last week, Ma said he is still negotiating the plan with China and expressed hope the idea would be successful, and that Taiwan and China would agree on freezing the number of allies that each side had.

When asked to assess how China has reacted to the idea thus far, the official said: “I felt that [China’s] goodwill exists. We have the tacit understanding that both sides would reject establishing diplomatic ties with each others allies.”

That the Ma administration recently managed to maintain ties with Paraguay — Taiwan’s only ally in South America, and one that had expressed interest in switching recognition to China many times — is often cited by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) government as an illustration of China’s positive reaction to Ma’s proposed diplomatic truce.

“To be ‘inactive’ in wooing away the other side’s allies is the principle the diplomatic truce plan is based on, along with the goodwill both sides of the strait show to each other,” the official said.

He said the government expects the ceasefire in diplomacy between the two countries to last for a period of time, without giving an estimated time frame.

“When [China] begins to force our allies to ditch Taiwan, we will ask for negotiations and will also take action if it turns out that we can’t strike a deal,” he said.

Commenting on the official’s remarks, Edward Chen (陳一新), a professor at Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of American Studies, on the other hand, praised the government for its diplomatic truce, saying that Taiwan, in view of China’s political clout and economic power, “has no way out” except to employ such a strategy.

The government adopted a “realistic” way to handle the UN bids, he said.

“Some people might be unhappy about the UN proposal for not bidding for a UN seat, but it is a gesture of goodwill for Taiwan to talk to China. And Taiwan has nothing to lose,” he said.

Tung Chen-yuan (童振源), an associate professor at the Graduate Institute of Development Studies of National Chengchi University, on the other hand, said that whether China has shown goodwill to Taiwan has yet to be determined.

“China has changed its attitude in dealing with cross-strait affairs, but I haven’t seen any changes on the diplomatic front,” Tung said. “The ongoing Olympic Games might also be a reason that Beijing has chosen to take a rather soft approach towards the Taiwan issue.”

Tung also called into question whether the UN proposal would earn Taiwan observer status at the WHA or opportunities to participate in other specialized agencies of the UN.

“No matter how other countries consider the UN proposal, the key point is whether China opposes Taiwan’s participation in the UN’s affiliated agencies given that they all require statehood as a prerequisite to membership,” Tung said.
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