In a recent report by the US Congressional Research Service, Shirley Kan says the US, following Taiwan’s March 22 presidential election, has an opportunity to adopt new measures to help maintain its interests in the Taiwan Strait, which include dispelling the idea that the Taiwan Strait should be under joint control by the US and China and curbing China’s increasing expectations of the US.
The report says that as China continues to build a military threat to Taiwan, there is increasing concern that the military balance is tipping in favor of China.
The report also says that China has overtaken the US’ position as Taiwan’s main trade partner so in addition to the military threat, Taiwan now also faces the threat of economic dependence.
The report analyzes the security implications of Taiwan’s presidential election outcome, saying that the election of Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is likely to lead to short term relaxation of cross-strait tension, but in the long term, issues concerning Taiwan’s identity and sovereignty are still not resolved, which means that Chinese uncertainty over Taiwan remains because Taiwan’s democratic system is a threat to the Chinese Communist Party.
The report also says that although Ma has not given public support to the purchase of diesel driven submarines, his advisers and other sources imply that he is in support of continued arms purchases from the US to defend Taiwan, including F16 fighter jets and submarines. His stance toward the Hsiungfeng IIE land based cruise missile is more uncertain, the report said.
Ma’s aides have said earlier that the development phase of the Hsiungfeng would be restricted or that the missile would only be directed against military targets in China’s southeastern coastal region. Because the US has openly has criticized the development of the Hsiungfeng missile, the report suggests that the US engage in sincere and open discussion with Taiwan to reduce friction on this issue.
The report also says that the US President George W. Bush administration’s criticism of Taiwan’s referendums and the rejection of Taiwan’s letter of intent to purchase F16s is creating the impression that the US is preparing for joint control of the Taiwan Strait together with China, thereby also raising Chinese expectations.
The US has denied the talk about joint control, but the question remains whether US decision- makers need to take concrete action to put an end to the idea.
Finally, the report says that the US can continue its current policy following Ma’s inauguration, but that it could increase contact with the Ma administration and strengthen US-Taiwan relations by sending a top level delegation to Ma’s inauguration and help Taiwan expand its international participation.
The report adds that Ma and his advisers are familiar with the US and that the US can counterbalance pro-China elements within the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) by trying to strengthen US-friendly leaders.
The report even goes so far as to suggest that US war ships in future could visit Taiwanese ports and allow top-level Taiwanese delegations to attend the APEC summit.
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