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Legislative elections and referendums: Economy the key to KMT win

Visitors fill the exhibition floor on the second day of the IT Month exhibition at the World Trade Center in Taipei on Dec. 8 last year. Economists said in the wake of the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) legislative election victory that implementing a policy framework on Taiwan-China relations would be the government's most useful tool for improving the economy. PHOTO: WANG PEI-HUA, TAIPEI TIMES

The landslide victory of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the legislative elections reflects the electorate's yearning for a better economy, but the key to the direction of Taiwan's economic policies lies with the presidential election in March and the subsequent Cabinet reshuffle, economists said yesterday.

Polaris Research Institute president Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) said the election reflected a message that voters wanted to send to politicians -- "It's the economy, stupid."

"Taiwan's survival hinges on the economy, and time is running out," Liang said.

"I would interpret the KMT's win with such an overwhelming margin as an `F' from voters disappointed with the performance of the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] over the past eight years, especially over the economy," said Chou Tein-chen (周添城), chair of Shih Chien University's business school in Taipei.

Though there was no consensus on whether the legislative poll would bring a pendulum effect to the presidential election, analysts agreed that the outcome of the election in March is still the key to future economic policies.

Taiwan's economic growth of 4.4 percent last year was the lowest among 20 Asian countries, according to a report issued last week by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

Experts such as Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tan Kim-eng (陳錦榮) have been bullish over a decisive majority held by any party in the Legislative Yuan as a chance to pull Taiwan "out of a political quagmire."

"Lawmaking remains difficult in the absence of bipartisan cooperation. And if the legislative and presidential elections this year yield another `split government,' it could result in continued political paralysis at a time when the government will be facing important policy decisions," Singapore-based Tan wrote in a report released last week.

Kung Ming-hsin (龔明鑫), vice president of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台灣經濟研究院), said people are tired of the stalemate caused by bipartisan politics over the past eight years.

"The worst is over, because the impasse in the last parliament was the result of a reluctant opposition unable to accept its failure in the 2004 election," Kung said.

"If the KMT is to win the presidential race too, that means the voters are now giving the KMT very high expectations to improve the economy. But if the DPP won the presidential election, that would mean voters are keen to maintain Taiwan's integrity as a country," Kung said.

Besides Taiwan's policies toward China, what economic issues played a role in the legislative elections?

Most economists interviewed by the Taipei Times said they didn't find much difference between the KMT and the DPP with regard to other economic polices, and they called on the two parties to give clearer pictures of their policies for the coming election.

National Chengchi University professor Steve Lin (林祖嘉) agreed.

He said the KMT's policy of opening the market to more mainland Chinese tourists would boost the service sector and help improve the serious unemployment problem among low-skilled workers in southern Taiwan.

TIER's Kung said both the DPP's Frank Hsieh and KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) were moving towards a more "open" economic policy.

"Hsieh plans to improve the investment environment by giving more tax initiatives here to lure funds that have flown to China back to Taiwan, while Ma opts to open markets and push for direct flights ? Both are goals to boost economic growth," Kung said.

Chou said that the DPP lacked economic talent in its Cabinet.

"Even though DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) also champions an open policy towards Taiwan-China relations ... The voters vying for a better economy will definitely take [the lack of economic talent] into consideration when they vote in March," Chou said.

Liang stressed that the future government's ability to implement a policy framework is still the most important factor in improving the economy.

"That would depend on the success in negotiations on direct links and tourism with mainland authorities, the ability of the Cabinet members and the conciliation of internal resistance for such market openings," Liang said. "I would not say that Ma and Hsieh are the same on the liberalization path."

"At least Ma doesn't have the internal resistance issues on mainland policies that Hsieh has to deal with if he wants to deliver his campaign promises," Liang said.

"Although we are concerned about the possibility that an overwhelming win in both the legislative and the presidential race might tilt the balance of power too far, this is a good sign that the democracy in Taiwan is teaching politicians a lesson -- if they do a lousy job without caring for the people's needs, they will be out of their job sooner or later," Chou said.
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