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ANALYSIS: Analysts disagree on significance of Hu's olive branch

Chinese President Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) recent call for a "peace pact" under the concept of "one China" has drawn mixed reactions from analysts in Taiwan.

Last Monday, Hu suggested during his speech at the opening of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 17th National Congress in Beijing that China and Taiwan should ink a peace agreement ending the formal state of hostility that has persisted since Chiang Kai-shek's (蔣介石) Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lost the Chinese Civil War in 1949 and fled to Taiwan.

But the offer came with the clear condition that negotiations would only proceed if Taiwan agreed that there is only "one China."

Commenting on Hu's overture, Lin Cheng-yi (林正義), a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of European and American Studies, called it a mere formality lacking substance.

Hu also suggested a peace pact with Taiwan when he met with former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) for the first time in 2005 and last year respectively.

"There was nothing new in the peace pact proposal as compared with before," Lin said.

Lin said Hu's "initiative" was actually just a "propaganda tactic" designed to promote a view of China as a peaceful power while the CCP Congress draws the attention of the international community.

Lin said that Hu's "one China" condition claiming Taiwan was part of China under the leadership of Beijing was untenable.

"First of all, Hu said on May 17, 2004, that China would like to establish a mechanism to create mutual trust with Taiwan on military matters, but he didn't act on his words," Lin said.

"The hundreds of missiles targeting Taiwan are still there," Lin said.

"And secondly, the `one China principle' of the peace agreement would make it difficult for Taiwanese people to make their voices [on Taiwan's future] heard. It is just not an acceptable solution for Taiwan," he said.

However, Alexander Huang (黃介正), director of the Graduate Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University said Hu's peace pact proposal should not necessarily be brushed aside as "a cliche."

"[Hu] might just saying that [to please] the US, but it is also possible that Hu really intends to work for a formal end to hostilities across the strait," Huang said.

Huang said that a peace agreement in which, for a certain number of years, Taiwan would vow not to declare independence and China would vow not to take Taiwan by force, would help Hu realize his "top goal" of "making China into a society that is well-off by 2020."

"Whether or not the peace agreement comes with the condition of `one China,' the initiative in itself leaves room for imagination," Huang said.

Huang said the most common view of the Taiwan issue in China is that Republic of China (ROC) is a remnant of the 1945 to 1949 Chinese Civil War, meaning that preventing the ROC from existing as a country is seen as a sacred mission.

He added that a peace agreement, if signed, could be a point from which Taiwan and China could recognize each other's governments and negotiate issues on an equal footing.

"Hu can propose this because he -- with his 15 years as member of the standing committee of the CCP Politburo and five years as CCP secretary-general -- is the No. 1 person in China. It's not clear yet whether Hu's successor will be capable of continuing his plan," Huang said.

Soon after Hu's remarks, the US National Security Council issued a statement praising his call for negotiations with Taiwan on cross-strait relations as "a step in the right direction," but reminded Beijing that Taiwan must first agree to the conditions.

The US statement aroused concern from some political observers, who say it could signal to Beijing that the US supports the idea of "one China."

Shih Cheng-chuan (施正權), an associate professor at the graduate department of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, said it was clear that Washington's comments on the issue of Taiwan had favored China in recent years.

A recent string of developments has shown that the US and China are jointly managing the overall situation in the Taiwan Strait, he said.

However, both Shih and Huang dismissed the speculation that the US' latest remark was tantamount to accepting the idea of "one China."

The US "one China policy" conflicts directly with China's "one China principle" on the issue of sovereignty, Huang said.
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