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ANALYSIS: Parties weigh pros and cons of separate elections

The selection of an election date is one among many of the factors political parties will take into account as they evaluate their electoral outlook. It was also the main reason behind the recent debate over whether to combine the legislative and presidential elections, political analysts said.

Following its decision last month to hold legislative elections on Jan. 12 next year, the Central Election Commission (CEC) earlier this month said that the presidential election would not be held on the same day but rather on March 22.

The CEC said it had made this decision after neither the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nor the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) had expressed a preference on whether the elections should be held simultaneously or separately.

second thoughts

The KMT, however, shifted gear after the CEC announced its decision, but was unable to convince the CEC to change it. The DPP also blew hot and cold on the matter.

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) first said in January that he would be happy to shorten his term in office if doing so contributed to making combined elections possible.

But when DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) made known his preference for a stand-alone presidential election, his party said it would respect the CEC's decision -- this despite a majority of its lawmakers having expressed their preference for combined elections.

Only the smaller parties -- the People First Party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union and the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union -- informed the CEC that they opposed combined elections, CEC Chairman Chang Cheng-hsiung (張政雄) said.

critics

Critics of the electoral system often criticize the frequency of elections, saying that over the last decade there has been a major election almost every year.

Chi Chun-chen (紀俊臣), a political science professor at Tunghai University, said that in theory it would be impossible to hold presidential and legislative elections simultaneously, as the Constitution stipulates different term durations.

Adding to the difficulty, Chi said, is the constitutional mechanism that authorizes the president to dissolve the legislature and call legislative elections when the premier is removed by a vote of no-confidence.

"We happen to have a chance to combine the two elections this time, but the thing is, preventing a waste of public resources, excessive political mobilization and more convenience should not be the main factors deciding when elections will be held," he said.

Chi, who previously served as director of the department of civil affairs at the Ministry of the Interior, said a nationwide election would cost NT$1 billion (US$30 million) and require 200,000 polling station workers on election day.

"Not to mention the inconvenience it would cause the public," he said.

Convener of the Constitutional Reform Alliance Allen Houng (洪裕宏) said the impact of separating or combining the two elections upon the outcome of the legislative and presidential elections explained the division of opinion within the DPP.

strategies

Houng said the reason why most DPP legislative candidates tended to favor a two-in-one election was the possible "coattail effect" of a presidential election, which in their view would work in their favor rather than the KMT's.

"For one thing, a presidential election would generate a higher turnout than a legislative one. Moreover, a two-in-one election is beneficial to a party whose candidates are good at setting the news agenda," he said.

Past experience has shown that a higher turnout is usually beneficial to the DPP and the DPP is believed to be better at campaigning than the KMT. The KMT, for its part, is believed to be more effective in mobilizing its forces during elections.

"DPP legislative candidates would become more noticeable if their campaigns were linked with the presidential election, as the media would surely focus mostly on the presidential election, which in turn would mitigate the influence of mobilization in the legislative election," Houng said.

Yang Chun-chih (楊鈞池), an associate professor of government and law at National University of Kaohsiung, disagreed with Houng, saying that a two-in-one election would be unfavorable to the DPP in the legislative election.

"With DPP legislative candidates losing the attention of the media to the presidential election, mobilization would necessarily gain in importance, especially in the new single-seat legislative districts," he said.

As for the impact on the presidential election, assistant professor of public administration at Chung Hua University Tseng Chien-yuan (曾建元) and Houng agreed that combining the two elections would benefit KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).

This, they said, explained why the KMT called on the CEC to change its decision to hold the elections separately.

If the presidential election were held with the legislative election, there is also a possibility that the results of the presidential election would be influenced by vote-buying, a tactic often used by the KMT and its allies during elections, Tseng said.

symbolic dates

Hong said that one reason the Hsieh camp favored a separate presidential election was because the election date, in late March, comes on the heels of the 228 Incident memorial day and the anniversary of China's passing of the "Anti-Secession" Law on March 14.

"The social atmosphere after these two days is beneficial to the DPP and buttresses its main electoral propaganda -- the issue of national identity," Houng said.

Conversely, if the presidential election were held on Jan. 12, which follows Constitutional Day on Dec. 25 and New Years' Day -- known as the Republic of China Founding Day -- the atmosphere would be favorable to the KMT, he said.
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