Print

Mail

wiki links

Chen's power transfer splintered blue camp: analysts

President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) recent decision to delegate powers to Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and other high-ranking party officials has deeply divided the pan-blue camp, which is torn between a campaign to recall Chen and a no-confidence vote against Su.

While the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) fail to see eye to eye on the means, they both agree that Chen should step down in order to assume responsibility for the recent string of allegations of corruption involving government officials and Chen's in-laws.

Likening the recall campaign to a shooting game, KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said that "it's time to load the gun, but not yet time to pull the trigger, because you only get one shot at recalling a president."

Ma has so far rejected the proposal to recall Chen, citing the relatively high legal threshold, but instead urged Chen to resign. In order to pass, a recall motion would require approval from two-thirds of the legislature and a majority of eligible voters in a nationwide referendum.

Ma also expressed misgivings over seeing Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) take over the nation's helm, which would be the result of a successful recall drive.

Although Ma recognizes that a no-confidence vote against the premier would be an easier route, he voiced concern over the legislative re-election that could follow such a move. If a no-confidence vote were successful, Chen could either appoint a new premier to replace Su, or disband the legislature and call snap elections.

Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) also voiced concerns about the proposal, pointing out that the re-districting scheme for the next legislative election has not yet been finalized. Under constitutional amendments passed last year, the next legislative election must use a new single-member, two-vote system, whose districts have not yet been approved.

PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), on the other hand, is keen on the recall campaign, saying that his party will stage protests every weekend until Chen steps down.

Determined to prove that his inaction was not a sign of weakness, Ma, who had said that he would not attend an anti-Chen protest in front of the Presidential Office on Saturday, had a last-minute change of heart and went to the rally.

While Chen's strategy of stepping back from power has successfully consolidated his leadership within his party, the KMT and PFP are now competing with each other for the backing of pan-blue supporters, said Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), an assistant research fellow in political science at Academia Sinica.

"While Chen is embroiled in the crisis plaguing his administration, Ma is facing a challenge to his leadership," he said.

Although opposition parties stand a better chance of success with a no-confidence vote, Hsu said that he does not think it would be an easy move, because the KMT would have to make sure it had sufficient support from the PFP, or pan-green and independent lawmakers.

A no-confidence vote against the premier would require the signatures of one third of lawmakers and the consent of half of the legislature.

According to the 1997 additional articles to the Constitution, the premier is directly appointed by the head of state without the need for the legislature's consent. The legislature has the power to pass a no-confidence vote against the premier, but the head of state has the power to dissolve the legislature if that happens.

If opposition parties managed to boot Su out of office, they would face a new set of problems, including a possible new legislative elections.

"Either way, the ball is in President Chen's court," Hsu said.

Chen's delegation of power also limits Lu's power, which whittles down the major contenders for the Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate in 2008 to just two: Su and DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, he said.

There has never been a coalition government in Taiwan, but Wang Yeh-li (王業立), a political science professor at Tunghai University, said that the odds of having one seem to be increasing.

"It has very little meaning to appoint a new premier from the DPP because he or she is bound to face a no-confidence vote again if the person cannot win the approval of opposition parties," he said.

Wang Yeh-li said that Ma would be a more suitable candidate for the premier post. While Ma would be pre-occupied with the new job and held accountable for the performance of the new government, Wang Yeh-li said that the DPP could use that time to cultivate its presidential candidate.

Commenting on Soong's persistence in pushing for a recall campaign, Wang Yeh-li said that Soong won't lose politically, despite the campaign's slim chance of success.
This story has been viewed 2457 times.