Faced with the ominous rise of China, Taiwan might consider developing its "energy diplomacy" with oil-producing countries in Africa and the Middle East in a bid to counter Beijing's implacable diplomatic strategy, political observers said yesterday.
Under China's relentless diplomatic suppression of Taiwan, dubbed the "three guang" strategy (三光政策), analysts are worried that Beijing may wage another wave of diplomatic warfare in the near future, especially with the planned overseas visit by President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in May coming hot on the heels of the trip by his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), next month.
Beijing's "three guang" strategy refers to Beijing's determination to "take all" of Taiwan's diplomatic allies, "block all" of Taiwan's international channels and "crush all" of Taiwan's international space.
Taiwan currently has 25 diplomatic allies, with 12 in Latin America, six in East Asia and the Pacific, another six in Africa and one in Europe.
Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), an assistant research fellow in political science at Academia Sinica, said the government might want to consider developing "energy diplomacy" and reaching out to oil-producing countries in Africa and the Middle East.
"Energy will definitely play a significant role in the administration's future diplomatic policy," Hsu said. "We may not be the soldiers fighting in the frontline, but there is certainly much room for us to maneuver." Beijing has recently placed great importance on its "energy politics."
Hu met with his Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, with Putin agreeing to pump natural gas to feed China's booming economy via a new pipeline. Both sides also agreed to jointly explore possible new energy resources, including oil and natural gas.
If Taiwan continues with its traditional diplomatic strategy of only consolidating diplomatic ties with its allies and focusing on Latin America, Hsu said that the cost of countering Beijing's "three guang" diplomacy may become too high.
But if Taiwan reaches out to oil-producing countries who are not its allies, he said, it could also open new doors for the country and help it escape from its cramped diplomatic situation.
An official at the National Security Council, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said he did not think that Taiwan should be worried about the China-Russia energy accord, because it is only an "agreement on paper."
"First of all, it takes about five years to complete a gas pipeline. In addition, Russia is still holding off on China's request to lay an oil pipeline to carry Siberian oil to China," he said.
China is a leading buyer of Russian oil. Both Tokyo and Beijing have maneuvered hard for the best route for the 4,100km East Siberian-Pacific pipeline. At the moment, China imports all of its Russian oil via rail.
The official told the Taipei Times that the government has been seeking cooperation with oil-producing countries for several years.
Taiwan has signed an oil exploration agreement with its diplomatic ally Chad, and has sent technicians there.
The government would not pass up an opportunity to cooperate with non-diplomatic allies in the region, the official said.
The official added that the government has been cooperating with other non-allies such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Libya.
The UAE was one of the places where Chen made a stopover last October en route back to Taiwan after he concluded a diplomatic tour of various allies in Central America and the Caribbean.
During Chen's visit, Taiwan and the UAE agreed to form a strategic partnership to boost military and trade ties, despite their lack of diplomatic relations.
The two countries are also set to step up their bilateral trade and investment and Taiwan also plans to open a representative office in Abu Dhabi.
The state-run Chinese Petroleum Corp has also sent delegations to the UAE to discuss an oil investment offer. Although it is hard to say when the deal will be sealed, the official said that both sides remain interested in the proposal.
Last year, Taiwan also signed an agreement with Qatar, in which Qatar agreed to provide Taiwan with natural gas at reasonable prices, the official said. Taiwan will in return provide technical training programs to staff from Qatar's petrochemical industry.
As soon as the gas terminal and storage facility here are up and running, the liquefied natural gas will be shipped from Qatar to Taiwan by sea, the official said.
Despite the friendly cooperative relationship with Qatar, the official said that he did not see Chen visiting Qatar in the foreseeable future.
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