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Coherent cross-strait strategy greatly lacking

"Soong's remarks could have a backlash on the DPP. This is expected because the DPP and PFP's original position on these matters are so vastly different. "

Anonymous government official

One high-ranking official gave voice this past week to what many have long suspected -- that the government's handling of recent cross-strait developments has been guided in part by tactics no more sophisticated than trial and error.

"This situation is unprecedented in Taiwan, and so we can only make decisions along the way. This is a completely new situation, and we need to gradually adjust the government's position so we can open a window of opportunity for cross-strait talks," a government official said on condition of anonymity.

With the opposition parties cozying up to Beijing and the National Assembly elections just around the corner, cross-strait developments have indeed been puzzling of late. This has been underscored by unlikely political alliances, with President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) asking People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) to act as his messenger to Beijing, and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) reconciling with its historic foe, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

It has also been marked by a shift in Beijing's previous tactic of issuing military threats to get its way, to what has been called its new "charm offensive." This new tactic has been characterized most recently by Beijing's move to woo Taiwan with concessions on tourism, agricultural trade deals and even two endangered pandas.

At home, cross-strait relations have recently come under the shadow of the upcoming National Assembly elections slated for this weekend. While it remains unclear whether cross-strait policies might see any changes, recent events have led many to think twice about whether the script of cross-strait dialogue might be tweaked.

Since Beijing passed its "Anti-Secession" Law authorizing the use of force against Taiwan should it seek formal independence, the Mainland Affairs Council has taken a "wait and see" approach, and its attitude toward Soong's visit to China has fallen along the same lines.

High-ranking officials said last week that the government would have to "look over all relevant information -- the tone and content of the discussions and what China might say after Soong's visit -- before making an assessment."

"All this must be included in our assessment as to whether there has been a softening in China's stance on Taiwan, and if it is willing to conduct talks with our government directly," the official said.

The implicit concern, however, is what the administration will do if Beijing ignores the Chen administration and deals exclusively with the opposition parties. In an interview last week, former Mainland Affairs Council vice chairman Lin Chong-pin (林中斌) alluded to what he called the "new face" opened up by opposition leaders' visits to China, saying several Chinese pundits were predicting that "the age of exchange is now beginning."

But Lin warned that "Beijing has a deliberate policy of using exchange to achieve its goals."

Chen's recent about-face on Lien and Soong's China visits might reflect this concern. Having taken the initiative to ask Soong to act as his messenger to Beijing, Chen on Sunday made moves to distance himself from Soong, claiming that the PFP leader had met with China's Taiwan Affairs Office director Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) in the US to arrange the visit to China. Just days before the upcoming elections, Chen's move was seemingly aimed at highlighting Soong's close ties with Beijing. The PFP has denied Chen's claims.

The ambiguity of Chen's relationship with Soong during his tour of China leaves much room for misinformation, however. Asked whether Soong's remarks in China in support of the controversial "1992 consensus" and opposition to Taiwan's independence was an accurate representative of the Chen-Soong 10-point consensus, the official predicted that Soong would relay Chen's message behind closed doors.

"[Soong's] public and private remarks need to be dealt with separately," the government source said. But whether this distinction will be lost on pan-green supporters in the upcoming election is of concern.

"Soong's remarks could have a backlash on the DPP. This is expected because the DPP and PFP's original position on these matters are so vastly different. So there could be green backlash," the official said.

The government wants, understandably, to have its cake and eat it too, but whether the ruling party will be able to pull off the balancing act that cross-strait politics demands remains to be seen.
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