A former senior Clinton administration official in touch with leaders on both sides of the Taiwan Strait says there is a possibility that President Chen Shui-bian (
Kenneth Lieberthal, the National Security Council's senior director for Asian Affairs under former US president Bill Clinton, said that both Chen and Hu realize that their ultimate objectives of independence and unification will not be "operationally feasible" during their terms in office, and so they could be forced to reach an agreement essentially pushing resolution back to the next generation of leaders.
On his side, Hu realizes that pushing unification is destabilizing, and Chen realizes the same thing when it comes to pushing independence.
Lieberthal, a University of Michigan professor currently in Washington for a stint with the Brookings Institution think tank, made his comments during a luncheon with a group of Washington correspondents for Taiwanese media outlets.
He feels that the visits by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) could be the opening round of a series of events that could lead to Chen-Hu negotiations in the next year or two.
Once the negotiations started, it would take the two about a year-and-a-half to reach agreement.
"They will be long, hard negotiations. So it is important to get started pretty soon," he said.
Lieberthal is a regular visitor to both Taipei and Beijing.
He last met with Chen in Taipei on April 11, in an unpublicized trip to discuss current cross-strait developments. He refused to disclose the contents of the talks or to characterize Chen's comments.
However, he said that Chen does want stability, and that his main dilemma is how to achieve it without giving up his core principals, which include striving for eventual independence.
"Chen is prepared, if the opportunity is there, to take some fairly bold steps to establish long-term stabilization of cross-strait relations in a way that does not compromise Taiwan's future, but rather enhances its future," he said.
"That leaves Chen open to opportunities that do not decide Taiwan's long-term future but which establishes ground rules for dealing with the long term future," Lieberthal said, "if Beijing is really interested in this."
Hu's aims are parallel, Lieberthal feels. He did not minimize the difficulties negotiations would face, but said that any pact would have to forswear both Taiwanese independence and Chinese use of force at least for the coming decades.
One main problem, he said, is the bitterness of Taiwan's domestic politics. To overcome this, he said, one of the requirements would be for Lien to reach out to Chen, and not try to isolate him politically.
"My guess is that [Lien] may well seek to use it for partisan purposes," he said.
"There is at least a possibility of surprisingly constructive cooperation" between Chen and Hu, Lieberthal said.
He would not comment on whether the US played a role in bringing about the current cross-strait diplomatic developments but said he felt the Bush administration's position was "absolutely right," which, he conceded, was quite an admission for a Clintonite.
That position is to promote dialogue for a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues, welcome any dialogue, and stress the importance of Beijing's ultimate need to talk directly with Chen.
Lieberthal said that Hu was "surprised" by the outcome of last year's Legislative Yuan elections, having expected the pan-greens to win a majority of the seats.
That expectation explains why Hu had pushed so hard to get the "Anti-Secession" Law put on the National People's Congress agenda by the Standing Committee last December.
After the KMT's victory in the elections, Hu made many changes in the text of the law to make it more of a document seeking stability and downplaying bellicose statements, Lieberthal said.
In addition, Hu made positive mention of the 10-point agreement reached by Chen and Soong.
"It is extraordinary, it is unprecedented for the secretary-general of the Chinese Communist Party to refer positively to any specific thing the president of Taiwan has done," Lieberthal said.
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