A look at a number of public opinion polls conducted over the past four months indicates that while opposition to China's proposed "anti-secession" law remains at around 80 percent, an increasing number of respondents feel that the Chinese government's overall gestures toward Taiwan are friendly.
Since Beijing first made public its draft "anti-secession" law in December, the government and various organizations raced to conduct surveys that could quantify national sentiment on the matter. Another such opinion poll was released this past Wednesday by the National Chengchi University Center for China Studies.
According to the survey, 58.3 percent of those polled said that Beijing's attitude toward the Taiwanese government could not be seen as friendly. Only 12.9 percent said Beijing was friendly while 28.9 percent left the question unanswered. The Chengchi University poll surveyed 1,088 people and was conducted between Feb 25 and Feb. 27.
When questioned whether Beijing's attitude towards the Taiwanese people, as opposed to the government, could be characterized as friendly, 43.6 said no, 28.1 said yes, and 28.2 made no comment.
Of interest is that a poll conducted by the government's cross-strait policymaking body, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), in December indicated that a significantly larger percentage of those polled felt Beijing's attitude was unfriendly. According to the poll, 79.4 percent of respondents did not think that China's overtures towards Taiwan could be interpreted as friendly, as opposed to a poll last month that indicated 58.3 percent of respondents felt Beijing was hostile.
Hsu Yung-ming (
"We can see from previous polls that the percentage of people who think China's attitude is unfriendly has already decreased a lot. This indicates that the direct charter flights [over the Lunar New Year] and other recent events have changed people's minds," Hsu said.
Chang Wu-ueh (
"These past two months have seen a reduction in cross-strait tension that I have never witnessed before. The direct charter flights, the visit from senior Chinese officials, and the goodwill extended by leaders on both sides all indicate a thaw in cross-strait tensions," Chang said.
Chang warned, however, that the "anti-secession" law could reverse this trend.
Indeed, figures from surveys conducted between December and February all point toward an overwhelming opposition regarding the bill.
The MAC poll conducted in December last year revealed that 73 percent of respondents opposed the law as a means of bringing about unification with China. Eighty-three percent found the bill unacceptable because it "provided a legal basis for a military attack on Taiwan."
Similarly, a poll conducted by Taiwan Thinktank on Dec 31 last year found that 79.6 percent of respondents were opposed to the law due to its purported aim of providing a legal basis for China invade Taiwan, while 4.5 approved of the law on such grounds.
The National Chengchi University's poll did not deviate by much either. Responding to a similar question, 82.3 percent indicated opposition to the bill, while only 3 percent approved of the bill.
"These polls indicate that there is a high level of agreement on this," MAC vice chairman Chiu Tai-san (
Chiu is only partially correct. Another important aspect of the polls that has not changed in the past three months since the proposed law was first unveiled, however, is the percentage of people who are unaware of it.
The Taiwan Thinktank survey indicated in December that 52.3 percent of those questioned had never heard of the proposed law, while 47.7 percent had. Similarly, the National Chengchi University poll conducted in Feb led to virtually identical results -- 53 percent were still unaware of the bill while 47 percent had heard of it.
Figures pertaining to whether the law could act a a barrier to progress in cross-strait relations were also constant among various polls. Some 52.7 percent of respondents indicated in December that the proposed law was a hurdle to cross-strait dialogue, while 55.1 percent answered similarly last week.
Political pundits pointed to the contradictions inherent in Beijing's cross-strait policies as a possible explanation for the increased perception of a "friendly foe" in Beijing and the persist opposition to its "anti-secession" law.
"China's `anti-secession' law indicates the contradictory nature of its Taiwan policy. While it calls superficially for stability, it is simultaneously pushing through legislation that aims to change the status quo," said Lin Cheng-yi (
"Also, they say the law will promote peace, but it is clear that the people of Taiwan are worried about their freedom under this sort of legislation," Lin added.
As China's National People's Congress -- its highest legislative organ -- meets today as part of its 10-day session, government officials and academics alike have said the passage of the law is inevitable.
It will be worth observing how public opinion responds as the details of the bill become available and as China continues to extend invitations to cooperate on the Tomb Sweeping Day charter flights and agricultural trade.
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