Tue, Sep 21, 2004 page3

• Hu unlikely to ease up on Taiwan and HK: analysts

  CHINA POLICIES China's president may have more room to move now that he has consolidated power, but most analysts don't expect any significant changes

  • AFP
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  President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) could ease China's hardline stance on Taiwan and Hong Kong now that his predecessor Jiang Zemin (江澤民) has retired but major policy changes are unlikely, analysts said yesterday.

  "One area where there might be a change is in foreign policy," Lyman Miller, from the Hoover Institute of Stanford University who edits the China Leadership Monitor, said. "The idea of the peaceful rise of China was used in speeches last year by both Hu Jintao and [Premier] Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) and no one else, but since the spring, this idea has gone away."

  Miller said it was difficult to analyze what this meant "but it seems that there has been some contention over what this idea means with respect to relations with the United States and Taiwan."

  Ostensibly the idea of a peaceful rise of an increasingly powerful China would entail the peaceful settlement of the Taiwan issue.

  But it was unclear if this meant Beijing would back down from its threat to take the island by force should it declare independence.

  "I don't expect great changes in either Sino-US relations or cross-strait relations, at least in the short run, but I think Hu is likely to focus more on resolving Chinas socio-economic difficulties than confronting the US," said Joseph Fewsmith, a China expert at Boston University.

  On Hong Kong, Hu may be freer to address increasing demands for democracy, but it would likely only come in the context of the intra-party democratic reforms that he is already trying to pursue domestically.

  "Hu's coming into power bodes well for Hong Kong and to a certain extent Taiwan," said Paul Harris, a specialist on Chinese politics at Hong Kong's Lingnan University.

  "It's still a big question whether he can consolidate his power and carry out his reforms and whether or not he will experiment more with democracy, but the Hong Kong elections [earlier this month] showed that you can have elections and still maintain control," Harris said.

  Gilles Guiheux, director of the Hong Kong-based French Center for the Study of Contemporary China, said the image Hu has already projected -- of a down-to-earth leader concerned with the problems of ordinary people -- could blossom more now.

  "There was no way for Hu Jintao to become pragmatic on the Hong Kong issue while Jiang Zemin was around because issues relating to sovereignty and nationalism were issues that politically he could not compromise on because of the leadership struggle," he said.
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