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US troops move benefits Taiwan

The reassignment of US troops overseas could bode well for Taiwan, according to military analysts who pointed to an increase in troop numbers in the Asia-Pacific as evidence of enhanced military security in the region.

"Traditionally, the US military has stressed Europe over Asia. It is now taking away its forces from Europe and adding forces to Asia in response to the situation in the Korean peninsula, and even more importantly in the Taiwan Strait," said Holmes Liao (廖宏祥), a professor at the National Defense University's Armed Forces College and an advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Asked whether Taiwan could benefit from the troop revisions, Liao said: "Of course. The US presence in the area provides a strong deterrent for everyone."

He added that "military contingencies in the area are becoming more and more `real.'"

"It's hard to say what this [reassignment of troops] will mean for Taiwan in the short term, but my take is optimistic for the long term," said Lee Hua-chiu (李華球), a National Policy Foundation researcher and the deputy secretary-general of the Friends of Hong Kong and Macau Association.

Lee said that the US plans amounted to "invisible assistance" for Taiwan.

According to Lee, the situation's impact had to be analyzed with US military interests in North Korea and South Korea in mind. He said that the increased presence in the Asia-Pacific was linked with the possibility of military engagement on the Korean peninsula.

"Given the situation in North Korea, the US would be especially interested in China because of the influence China could have. As a result, the Taiwan Strait will also be taken into account," Lee said.

"By increasing the number of troops on Guam, the US will be `closer' to North Korea and the Taiwan Strait. There will be an increased presence on the East China Sea rim," Lee said.

While US President George W. Bush's military realignment plans will send home 70,000 to 100,000 troops stationed in Europe and Asia, local media reports said the plans reflected changing priorities.

"Overall, the US is shifting its emphasis away from Europe towards Asia. Of course, the Middle East and Central Asia are also important factors ... but the [former] Soviet Union is no longer a military concern for the US," said Arthur Ding (丁樹範), a cross-strait military affairs expert and research fellow at the National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations.

"At the very least, the changes will not have a negative impact on Taiwan," Ding told the Taipei Times yesterday.

According to Ding, the restructuring of US troops in Asia pointed to the possibility of the deployment of another aircraft carrier group to the Asia-Pacific. Currently, the USS Kitty Hawk is the only aircraft carrier group in the region.

"Deploying an aircraft carrier group, which includes submarines and destroyers, would mean sending thousands of troops to the deployed area," Ding said.

A senior government official yesterday said that while the number of US troops deployed overseas is being cut, the overall firepower of the US is increasing.

"This has always been [US Defense Secretary Donald] Rumsfeld's stance -- that technology replace ground forces. One missile can hit the target, therefore troops can be cut," Ding said.

Ding downplayed Bush's announcement, saying that election concerns played a role in the plans.

"This redeployment plan will take a decade to complete, while Bush has at most 4 more years in office ... this is the US' overall military strategy, but Bush is placing emphasis on it for the sake of re-election," Ding said.

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