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A milder approach to relations with China predicted in Chen's second term

The government will soften its tone and rhetoric on cross-strait issues, despite Beijing's increasingly hawkish attacks on Taiwan's leadership and Taiwan's investors doing business in China, sources said yesterday.

As President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) no longer faces the pressures of re-election, the sources said, maintaining peace will be his top policy guideline for his second term in office. Against this backdrop, the sources said, Chen will adopt a conciliatory tone and measures from now on to pave the way for resuming long-stalled cross-strait dialogue.

Among the conciliatory measures that have been adopted recently are Chen's declaration in his May 20 inaugural speech that so long as there is the consent of the 23 million people of Taiwan, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can seek to establish relations in any form whatsoever; Mainland Affairs Council Chairman Joseph Wu's (吳釗燮) invitation to the top Chinese negotiator with Taiwan, Wang Daohan (汪道涵), to visit the nation; and Chen's recent announcement that his administration will expand and deepen its efforts to overcome problems with China.

The sources said Chen's decision to soften the tone on cross-strait issues is based on three considerations. First, there are hardline and moderate factions in Beijing regarding China's policy toward Taiwan. Beijing's sternly worded comments on the Taiwan issue May 17 and May 24 indicate that the hardline faction seems to have an upper hand at the moment. If Taiwan makes a strong response, the sources said, it would give the Chinese hardliners more ammunition to intimidate Taiwan.

Second, the sources predicted, as the US will hold a presidential election in November and Taiwan will hold legislative elections in December, China now will basically adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward cross-strait ties.

While China is not likely to change its basic policy tone toward Taiwan for the moment, the sources continued, Chen's administration must begin to pave the way now for a resumption of cross-strait dialogue after the year-end legislative elections. If the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and its ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), can win more than half of the legislative seats up for grabs, the sources said, Beijing is expected to become more willing to engage with the Chen administration.

Third, the sources said, adopting a softer tone toward China could help defuse US pressure on Taiwan. Noting that Beijing has revised its strategy for dealing with cross-strait affairs, the sources said, Beijing now prefers to push the US government to force Taiwan to accept its terms. Against this backdrop, the sources said, the DPP administration must hold out olive branches and issue goodwill messages to China to convince the US government that it is sincere in wishing to forge rapprochement and reconciliation with China.
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