The first referendum ever in Taiwan failed to pass yesterday, but scholars said it was not unexpected.
The first question in the referendum, which asked voters whether Taiwan should purchase more anti-missile equipment if China does not give up using military threats against Taiwan, only had a turnout of 45.17 percent (7,452,340 votes).
The second question in the referendum, which asked voters whether Taiwan should initiate negotiations with China and promote the establishment of a peaceful and stable framework, only had a turnout of 45.12 percent (7,444,148 votes).
"It was expected that the referendum would not pass, because even if the electorate turnout was 90 percent -- and the green camp got about 50 percent of all ballots -- 50 percent of 90 percent is only 45 percent. Apparently the pan-blue supporters did not participate in the referendum, and the voters dealt with the referendum according to their own partisan interests," said Wang Hsing-chung (王興中), a research coordinator at Taiwan Thinktank (台灣智庫).
Academia Sinica sociologist Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明) also agreed that for a referendum to succeed in the future, the law needed to be amended.
"The referendum did not pass this time mainly because at the later stages of the election campaign the focus was lost. The public was concerned with the Chen Yu-hao (陳由豪) [former Tuntex Group chairman] scandal and yesterday's [Friday's] shooting incident. The referendum was not a highlight anymore," Hsu said.
"The blue camp's opposition to the referendum also had a huge impact on the voters. The failure also cast a shadow on the future of referendums. To initiate a referendum in the future, there needs to be more comprehensive thinking," Hsu said.
Another sociologist from Academia Sinica, Wu Nai-te (吳乃德) said the public was not convinced by the government about the need for a referendum on this occasion.
"Many people have questioned the legitimacy and appropriateness of the referendum this time. Moreover, not many people would oppose the two questions asked in the referendum this time and there is little controversy over the two issues. So the public showed little interest in participating in the referendum," Wu said.
"Plus the blue camp supporters think the referendum was intentionally bundled with the presidential election, so they have refused to participate in the referendum," Wu said.
"The failure of this referendum should alert the leader of the country. In the future when the country's leader tries to initiate a referendum again, he should treat the referendum seriously, and not merely manipulate the issue to his benefit," Wu said.
Lawyer Wang Ping-yun (
"Some people's opposition to the referendum made the public feel at a loss about the referendum, and the public was not certain whether it was a good thing to participate in the referendum," Wang said.
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