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US keeps eye on Beijing ahead of poll

The US, concerned over China's movements in the Taiwan Strait in advance of the March 20 election, will keep a close watch for any signs of military activity by Beijing in the runup to the poll, CIA Director George Tenet said on Tuesday.

"We are closely monitoring the situation across the Taiwan Strait in the period surrounding Tai-wan's presidential election next month," Tenet said in a prepared statement for a hearing of the Senate Select Intelligence Committee on worldwide threats.

Tenet's statement, and his oral remarks in his testimony, repre-sented the strongest warning from the Bush administration in many months over the threat posed by some 500 Chinese ballistic missiles deployed in the Nanjing Military District.

"China continues an aggressive missile modernization program that will improve its ability to conduct a wide range of military options against Taiwan supported by both cruise and ballistic missiles. Expected technical improvements will give Beijing a more accurate and lethal missile force," Tenet told the committee, in what has been his annual report to Congress on global threats.

His comments were the first by a US official that specifically linked the election with Washington's concern over a possible Chinese military response to political developments in Taiwan.

Most observers in Washington, both in and outside of govern-ment, appear to have assumed that China would keep a low profile during the election to avoid bolstering the re-election chances of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).

Tenet did not explain, nor was he asked about whether he had any intelligence information pointing to a need to keep a close eye on China's military activities.

His concern, though, fits in with the wider issue he mentioned of China's overall military actions.

"Our greatest concern [in East Asia] remains China's military buildup, which continues to accelerate," he said, also citing China's substantial recent diplomatic gains in East Asia, and its economic growth and integration with the region's economies.

"Chinese leadership politics, especially the incomplete leadership transition, will influence how Beijing deals with the Taiwan issue this year and beyond. President and Communist Party leader Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) still shares power with his predecessor in those positions, Jiang Zemin (江澤民)," Tenet said.

The director of the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, however, told the committee that China had not given any indication that it was planning military activity in connection with the election.

"We see no indication of preparations for large-scale military exercises or other military activity to influence Taiwan[ese] voters at this stage," Jacoby said.

His testimony more closely tracked the public position of the administration since US President George W. Bush slammed Chen's referendum plan after meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (胡錦濤) last December in the White House.

"Domestic political events in Taipei are the principal determinant of short-term stability in the Taiwan Strait," Jacoby said.

"Beijing is monitoring developments in advance of next month's presidential elections and referendum, ever-concerned about a Taiwan declaration of independence," he said.

"Beijing will not tolerate the island's independence and will use military force regardless of the costs or risks," he said.
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