The drought in Taiwan over the last two years is not a local phenomenon but one of the results of climate changes in the low-latitude Asian monsoon area, according to scientists at the National Science Council (NSC) yesterday.
According to Hsu Huang-hsiung (許晃雄), an atmospheric sciences professor at National Taiwan University, it was rare for a drought to last for two years in Taiwan.
The last time a similar phenomenon occurred was in the early 1960s.
At a press conference held by the council yesterday, Hsu said his research suggests there is a pattern for droughts to occur in Taiwan. Before the 1950s, a drought appeared every 16 years. By the 1980s, however, it occurred every 12 to 13 years.
The study on droughts in Taiwan, however, needs to be approached from the viewpoint of regional climate changes, Hsu said.
According to Hsu, since 2002, the western Pacific Ocean has experienced a lack of mist and air current convection.
"In addition, we found that heat released from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau correlates with rainfall in East Asia," Hsu said.
Hsu said that existing research models predicting climate changes can simulate large-scale regional climate conditions but they were not suitable for small countries such as Taiwan.
Hsu said that his team would further develop a model which can simulate smaller-scale regional climate conditions.
"Thus we can predict not only the weather but also long-term climate changes in different areas of Taiwan with relatively more precision," Hsu said.
So far, scientists have not clarified the mechanisms causing the drought in the last two years.
Beginning today, water supplies to heavy water users in northern Taiwan would be reduced to 80 percent. Meanwhile, water supplies to the industrial sector will be reduced to 95 percent.
Hsu said yesterday that whether recent rains would relieve the drought in northern Taiwan remained uncertain and scientists could not predict how long the existing drought would last.
Liu Gin-rong (
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