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DPP, pan-blues running even, election poll finds

The pan-green camp election ticket of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) is in a statistical dead heat with the pan-blue alliance's ticket, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) reported yesterday.

The results of the latest election poll conducted by the DPP's public opinion survey center showed that the support rating of the pan-blue alliance ticket of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chen (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) is 38.8 percent, compared with the pan-green camp ticket's 37.9 percent.

Quoting the results of the poll conducted in the week after the Lunar New Year, DPP spokesman Wu Nai-jen (吳乃仁) said that though the Chen-Lu team is slightly behind the Lien-Soong ticket, the two camps are running even given that their support ratings are both hovering within the margin of error.

The DPP poll center conducted the survey from Jan. 25 to Jan. 30 by telephone, interviewing adult citizens chosen randomly nationwide. The poll, collecting about 1,200 valid replies, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percent.

Since last November, Wu said, neither ticket has had an advantage or a lead in opinion polls, indicating that the two sides are neck and neck.

Wu said the Chen-Lu team's support rating has actually improved since the last DPP poll was held one week prior to Lunar New Year's Day, when the support rating stood at 37 percent, compared with the Lien-Soong ticket's 39 percent.

Wu attributed the slight improvement of the Chen-Lu team's support rating to Chen's promotion of what the government is now referring to as a "peace referendum."

Chen announced last month that a referendum would be held on the day of the March 20 presidential election to ask voters whether Taiwan should further beef up its anti-missile defenses if Beijing refuses to withdraw the hundreds of ballistic missiles pointed at Taiwan, and whether a mechanism should be established that can negotiate with Beijing over a framework for peaceful cross-strait interaction.

Citing the president's referendum as helping Chen's re-election campaign, Wu said that the DPP will continue to champion the referendum issue during the run-up to the election.

Meanwhile, Wu discounted allegations that voter turnout would be low in the election. He said the turnout could be around 75 to 80 percent.

The 2000 presidential election had a voter turnout of 82 percent.
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