Fri, Jan 09, 2004 page4

• Analyst says that US will accept Chen's referendum

  William Kristol, chairman of the Project for a New American Century, a US thick tank, and also the editor of the influential Washington-based political magazine 'The Weekly Standard,' is in Taipei for the US-Japan-Taiwan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue conference, Recognized as one of the US' leading political analysts, Kristol spoke to 'Taipei Times' reporter Stephaine Wen on the current status of the US-Taiwn relationship and the prospect of a new US policy on Taiwan

  • By Stephaine Wen / STAFF REPORTER
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  Taipei Times: No doubt you've been asked about the defensive referendum issue. Now, the content and wording of the defensive referendum are not yet finalized. When the referendum is finalized at the end of this month, and should the content not seek to affect the status quo, do you think the US administration will support it?

  William Kristol: I think the US administration will accept it. I think that is an important distinction. Taiwan is a democracy and the US is a democracy. Taiwan should make its own decisions about referendums on matters that the US really shouldn't pass judgements on and intervene in, unless it crosses some line, unless it changes the fundamental premise of the US-Taiwan relationship or causes policy troubles for the US. But this is a defensive referendum, it doesn't challenge the status quo, it doesn't involve independence. And it seems certain to happen.

  [President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁)] will go ahead with the referendum and he will decide on the language. I hope he decides sooner than later because I think the uncertainty does some damage. People who don't wish the US-Taiwan relationship well can put a negative interpretation on what's going to happen.

  

  William Kristol, editor of 'The Weekly Standard' and a well-known foreign policy analyst, speaks on US-Taiwan relations at the US-Japan-Taiwan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue conference in Taipei on Wednesday.

  PHOTO: STEPHAINE WEN, TAIPEI TIMES

  Once we have the language I think everyone will see that it is defensive, and there is nothing to be alarmed about.

  I think the US administration will say, `Fine, go ahead with the referendum.' I don't think you should expect the US administration to praise it, but I think they will accept it. And I think they will tell Asia that any use of force is unacceptable.

  TT: According to an article a few days ago, the Presidential Office thinks that the US administration is less concerned about the defensive referendum now than the new constitution which Chen has proposed, because it is closer to the presidential election in US. What is your view on that?

  Kristol: Well, I think now we should get over the misunderstandings on the defensive referendum. I think you should get your election done and we should get our election done.

  I think there has to be a general rethinking of US policy, or the "one China" policy that was left over from another era. Taiwan was not a democracy when the world was a different place an era ago.

  It's time for fresh thinking. But I think that is the agenda for 2005 more than for 2004.

  I think the US administration will aim to keep things stable and Taiwan will progress with its democracy. But the question of looking into the future, at whether [the US'] China policy still makes sense, I don't think it's an issue that people will want to address this year really.

  TT: So, say Chen gets re-elected and he has already proposed a new constitution which will require a reconsideration of the structure of Taiwan...

  Kristol: I think that will force us then to have some fresh thinking in 2005. And that will be a healthy thing.

  You can't feed the past. And you shouldn't try to. I don't think that's a debate we have to have in the next two or three months. I think that will become a big issue in 2005 and 2006.

  The Bush administration will end up deciding that of course Taiwan is entitled to have a new constitution.

  It's ridiculous for Taiwan to have a Constitution from 50 years ago which is not suited to the current Taiwan. I think the US will be happy to work with Taiwan whenever we are needed but I don't think we are going to have a problem with a new constitution.

  TT: You met with Chen this morning. Were you satisfied with his explanation [of his position]?

  Kristol: Very much so. I think President Bush would be satisfied. Because I think there were some uncertainties and misunderstandings a few weeks ago as to what the referendum would be about. Chen made it clear that the defensive referendum would not change the status quo.

  I think when that's communicated directly to Bush in the next few weeks, I think that will help resolve the uncertainties in the relationship. I thought Chen was very strong on that and certainly made a very strong case for why the referendum is appropriate, and made the point that after all the threat to peace was not from the democratic referendum but from the 500 missiles.

  TT: Last year Chen shocked the international media and the Bush administration with the announcement of "one country on each side of the Strait," a referendum on entry into the World Health Organization, a new constitution and then the defensive referendum. What do you think the current status of the relationship between the US and Taiwanese governments is? Is the Bush administration still able to trust Chen's administration?

  Kristol: I think very much so. President Chen has held to his commitments. This referendum issue shouldn't tear us apart. The reason for this controversy is because some people were surprised by President Chen, and Beijing obviously saw this as an opportunity to set up discord between the US and Taiwan. And I think unfortunately it succeeded to a small degree in confusing some people in the US who keep thinking that President Chen was trying to disrupt the situation, without realizing that it's not true.

  I don't think this is a crisis and I strongly reject the notion that there is a crisis in the US-Taiwan relationship. No one I talk to in Washington believes that. I would expect this moderate problem to pass in the next few weeks. You will go ahead with your election, we will go ahead with ours.

  TT: Some people think that because of the role China plays in the six-party talks on the nuclear issue in North Korea, power relations between the US, China and other nations have tilted slightly. Is the US being friendly toward China because of their role in the talks?

  Kristol: A little bit. I think the US would want China's cooperation with [North] Korea, and generally the Bush administration has its hands full with the situation in the Middle East and Iraq. I think the Bush administration understands that the worst thing in East Asia would be to invite adventurism, or to give the impression that bullying works or that you can intimidate Taiwan or intimidate the US.

  We'll see what happens with North Korea. It's not so clear that China is very helpful.

  TT: Do you think democratization in Taiwan has anything to do with security in the Taiwan Strait and thus the security of the Asia-Pacific region?

  Kristol: Yes, well, I think a democratized Taiwan is a much more stable partner for the US. I think that's true for a lot of countries as well. Therefore, not only with the Taiwan Strait but more importantly for the region as a whole, we now have a network of democracies with Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia and others. I think the US commitment is very important in supporting this democracy ... and ultimately extending this democracy. I think democratization in Taiwan is one of the most important facts about East Asia in the last 25 years.

  It may not yet be reflected in the official policy, which is still left over from the period of pre-democratic Taiwan.

  And that's why I say it's got to change.
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