President Chen Shui-bian (
A close aide to Chen told the Taipei Times that the president's plan had not only a timetable, but also the Executive Yuan's sound evaluation.
Moreover, he said, there would also be laws made by the DPP's legislative caucus to realize the program.
He added that opposition parties had no reason to object to these actions and that Beijing also could not ignore the plan but needed to respond accordingly.
"The president's direct-links proposal was an active attack, and also seeks to prove that DPP government has demonstrated its policy execution ability," the aide said.
Political analysts said the president's handling of cross-strait issues has become more subtle and concrete than his previous friendly declarations to China over the past two years.
In the meantime, political observers said Chen's actions did not ensure a shift of power and did not guarantee a change of heart among the electorate.
While leading a group of editors-in-chief on a tour of public infrastructure in central and southern Taiwan last Wednesday, Chen announced that the government would implement direct links in three stages.
He said the government would finish negotiating with China before the end of next year and start to put the program into place. Five ministries and departments also released an evaluation report and program for direct links on Friday.
"The president's three-stage project was proposed after a lot of work and planning. He based it on a poll showing that about 70 percent of people support `direct links with conditions,' which means that under the prerequisite of ensuring the country's sovereignty and security, the direct-links project should be carried out as soon as possible," the aide said.
He said that when Chen was running for president in 1999, the DPP modified its "Resolution on Taiwan's future" to define a referendum as a defense strategy, and state that Taiwan is a sovereign country called the Republic of China.
In Chen's inauguration speech in 2000, he proposed the "five no's," provided China did threaten Taiwan militarily.
Last year, Chen proposed a meeting between the leaders on the two sides. These actions were considered passive or defensive.
"But this time, the president has proposed a timetable and finished planning his policies. He will also push for legal amendments to carry out the direct-links project in the legislature in September. It is an active attack," the aide said.
"The president needs to prove his sincerity in normalizing the cross-strait relationship to neutral voters. The business community has also penetrated the execution of the government's cross-strait policies," the aide said.
When asked about possible objections from DPP fundamentalists, pro-independence groups and local politicians who put national security first, the aide said that the prerequisite for Chen's direct-links project was the ensuring of the "one country on each side" principle. That was also why Chen has been promoting the principle and the referendum over the past six months, the aide said.
"The president has to develop suitable timing and conditions for the direct-links project. He must continue to assert Taiwan's sovereignty, removing the doubts of DPP supporters. Only after the Executive Yuan finished its evaluation report on the project did he reveal the three-stage timetable," the aide said.
Chen's manipulation of the issue has made headlines. Opposition parties were forced to respond to the direct-links plan over the past few days, and Beijing also responded right away, though it just said the usual stuff.
Political observers said that with the legislature session resuming in September as well as the coming election campaign, Chen's announcement would have an enduring impact, adding Beijing would need to confront Chen's attack.
Ku Chung-hua (
"It is only a storm within political circles. The issue probably won't be very persuasive to the voters lacking a party stance and those who feel apathetic toward politics," Ku said.
"Unless the cross-strait issues highlighted for the presidential election can provoke Beijing into making a strong response and excite the Taiwanese electorate, the pivotal issues for the election will be domestic and economic affairs," Ku said.
"If we examine the direct-links policy closely, the president's friendliness only reached the lip-service level in the past three years, and sometimes he even modified it according to the social context and the Chinese government's actions," he said.
"The electorate's perceptions of A-bian's cross-strait policies are not quite positive, and that attitude cannot be completely reversed with just one single announcement," Ku said.
Political commentator and columnist Hu Wen-huei (胡文輝) said that, given his position as president, Chen can dominate the media and election issues, through which he may reverse his election chances.
"When the Lien-Soong ticket was announced in April, opinion polls showed that they had about 60 percent of the electorate's support, compared with A-bian's 35 percent," Hu said.
After two months of manipulation of the media and political issues, Hu said, both sides returned to the same level early last month, each having about 40 percent of the electorate's support.
"However, the outcome of the Hualien by-election in early August showed that the structure of the Taiwanese electorate is still advantageous to the pan-blue camp. Even if the pan-green camp makes a serious appeal through public policies, it is still difficult for them to turn the tables," Hu said.
The DPP suffered a failure in the by-election and lost 8 percent of its supporters, while the blue camp was able to maintain its traditional advantage.
"It shows that the public has a deep impression of the central government's inefficiency at policy execution," Hu said.
"Even if the president manipulates the media successfully and commands the public issues as he wants, it would only influence the short-term public poll, but it would not necessarily become a crucial factor for the electorate's decision in the end," Hu said.
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