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Cabinet shares links assessment

The assessment of the impact of direct cross-strait transportation provides the public an objective picture of how direct transportation may influence Taiwan's economy, society, politics and national security, Premier Yu Shyi-kun said yesterday.

The government has geared up to prepare for the materialization of direct transportation. The government has five major tasks at hand, Yu said.

The tasks are to amend regulations concerning cross-strait relations, to strengthen the national security network, to speed up industry restructuring, to establish social order network and to strengthen quarantine systems, Yu said.

Launching direct sea transportation between Taiwan and China will help secure Taiwan's status as a major sea-transportation hub and turn the nation into an air-cargo and air-passenger transit hub, the assessment said.

However, direct cross-strait transportation and the three links may lead to an influx of goods from China and a backflow of goods manufactured by Taiwanese businessmen in China, according to the assessment.

A reduction in Taiwan's trade surplus and deflation might subsequently occur as a result of the direct transportation.

Besides, increases in Taiwanese traveling, doing business, consuming and purchasing real estate in China might cause domestic demand and real estate prices to fall, the assessment said.

In the long term, the assessment pointed out, direct transportation and the three links will change the structure of Taiwan's industries.

Agriculture and the industrial sector will shrink. Agriculture and aquaculture, the hardest hit sectors, will have to adopt high technology and upgrade products in order to survive.

Direct cross-strait transportation might worsen Taiwan's unemployment problem. Taiwan might also lose certain amount of manpower to China, the assessment said.

Direct transportation is beneficial to China's economy, might do little for Hong Kong's economy in the short term and would have limited impact on Japan's economy, the assessment said.

Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said whether the direct transportation would have positive or negative effects on Taiwan depends on whether the nation take the initiative to expand the beneficial effects and limit the detrimental ones.

Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming (湯曜明) said defense costs will grow enormously to cope with direct cross-strait transportation.

The ministry suggested no Chinese ships and aircraft be allowed to cross the Taiwan Strait.

The rule that no Chinese ships and aircrafts are allowed to cross the middle line of the Strait is a key factor maintaining the stability on the straits, said the ministry, adding the rule should not be lifted because of direct transportation.

Direct transportation should be first launched in the south of Taiwan and gradually expanded to the north and the middle of the island, the defense ministry said.

For direct air transportation, the defense ministry suggested no new air routes be added. It is better to adopt the existing international air routes for the direct air transportation, the ministry added.

If an emergency should threaten national security, the direct transportation should be partly or completely suspended, the ministry recommended.
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