Wortzel: I think Hu Jintao is going to be severely challenged. If he has independent ideas of his own, he will be constrained in his ability to implement them. It's not like a general election in a free country where voters clearly give a mandate to certain leaders. I am sure he does have ideas of his own, but he has to work within a collective leadership, and he has to take their ideas into consideration.
TT: Professor Kenneth Lieberthal has argued that China's new leadership realize they have many tough issues coming up that will require large expenditures, so there is no way they are going to seek confrontation with the US. Do you agree with his argument?
Wortzel: I think that's too bipolar an analysis and it tends to analyze everything that China does in terms of US-China relations, which is a weakness of someone who has never done anything but study China.
The fact of the matter is that there are still great tensions between China and the US that the new leadership would prefer not to confront because they want investment and stable relations. I think that helps in the near term. But just last week there was a dangerous intercept of another US navy reconnaissance plane by the Chinese military. So that action by itself could create confrontation. We don't know how the new leadership will really handle its commitment or what it says it would do about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles. If they do the usual thing, which is pass a new regulation, organize a new department and then continue to sell weapons and missiles to rogue states, there will be confrontation.
TT: Some say that the new Chinese leadership will want to stick to the "one China" principle while endeavoring to accelerate economic interactions with Taiwan as part of Beijing's main tactic to bring Taiwan into the fold. Do you agree with this observation?
Wortzel: I think these guys can walk and chew gum at the same time ... They are able to coordinate a fairly sophisticated policy. They've continued to increase their military capabilities and continued both their missiles and their arms purchases. That is one aspect of their policy not only toward Taiwan but also toward the Asia-Pacific. At the same time, they want to invite foreign investment, investment from Taiwan and trade. That improves their economy and it creates structures which make it perhaps more desirable for Taiwan to contemplate some changed relationship with the mainland.
Many analysts here in Taiwan tend to think that every decision is undertaken to affect something with regard to Taiwan. I think they overemphasize the importance of Taiwan in overall Chinese policy. These guys are going to act to ensure that they continue to run the People's Republic of China.
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