A blue-ribbon panel appointed by Congress has urged the George W. Bush administration to maintain a policy of "substantive military dialogue" with Taiwan to counter China's continued military buildup across the Strait.
The report warns about the possibility of a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait in the coming years and says that the US "cannot stand aside" if the situation worsens.
The 200-page report by the US-China Security Review Commission is scheduled to be released Monday. The commission was established by Congress in October 2000 to study China's military and economic policies and their implications for US policy.
"While cross-strait economic interactions have flourished since the 1990s, the two sides are locked in an uneasy standoff," the report says.
"China's political and military strategy is designed to remind US leaders of the significantly increased direct costs to America and its regional relationships should our military forces intervene to challenge Chinese interests."
Noting that the situation in the Strait will remain "volatile" in coming years, the report notes that "the real possibility that tensions could erupt into a major crisis must be factored into US policy and planning."
Key findings of the 12-member commission include: "China is enhancing its capability to carry out attacks across the Taiwan Strait with its special operations forces, air forces and navy and missile forces with little notice. It appears the Chinese buildup is designed to forestall pro-independence political movements in Taiwan and help bring about an eventual end to the island's continued separate status."
The US should "continue its current policy of substantive military dialogue with Taiwan and conduct exchanges covering issues ranging from threat analysis to doctrine, to force planning," the report says. It also calls for a greater congressional role in Taiwan policy planning and implementation.
China's military buildup across the Strait is "seriously affecting the region's balance of power," the commissioners concluded. While it would take 10 to15 years for China to successfully dominate the region, "even now at considerable cost and with substantial losses, the PLA Air Force could establish the air and sea superiority needed for a successful invasion," they say.
Other scenarios include a broad missile attack which "will have to be prosecuted until Taiwan surrenders," and a blockade to cripple Taiwan economically and isolate it internationally.
While Beijing is currently pursuing a policy of economic integration with China, this "could be supplanted by more troublesome strategies and actions in the next three to five years.
"After that time, the PLA will have sufficient military capability to pursue forceful reunification," it says.
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