Four years on from Athens, Michael Phelps will arrive in Beijing poised to make Olympic history — and join the select few whose feats see them transcend their sports.
Mark Spitz, who set the Olympic gold standard with seven swimming triumphs in Munich in 1972, predicted Phelps will not only break the record, but do it in spectacular style.
“I would expect that a month from now you’re going to see him win by margins and set times that have never been done before,” Spitz said. “He’ll be unbelievable.”
The reason, Spitz said, is that Phelps is “as experienced, and, in some ways, more experienced than I was going into doing this.”
“He won six gold medals [in 2004] and I only won two the Olympics before I won seven,” Spitz said.
Already grouped with such swimming icons as Australian Ian Thorpe and Spitz, Phelps has lately been drawing comparisons to greats Tiger Woods — winner of 14 major golf championships — and Roger Federer, winner of 12 tennis Grand Slam titles.
Phelps will swim the same events in Beijing that he tackled in Athens — the 200m and 400m individual medleys, the 100m and 200m butterflies, the 200m freestyle, and likely the three relays.
In Athens, he won all his individual events except the 200m freestyle, in which he took bronze behind Thorpe and Dutch star Pieter van den Hoogenband.
Phelps has since set the world record and won a world title in that event and Spitz pointed to that progress as an indicator of Phelps’ greatness.
“When I think about Michael not only swimming events that he holds the world record in, but also challenging himself in events that he is the second-fastest or third-fastest in the world and putting them into his program, that is more than I did,” Spitz said. “I think one of his greatest races to date was getting third in the 200 freestyle in Athens, because that is why he is the world record holder in that event now and that is why he will win that event in Beijing.”
Spitz believes Phelps has shown “a different kind of courage” than he displayed in 1972.
While Speedo’s million-dollar offer for a record-equaling seven golds still stands and Phelps reached the magic number of seven triumphs at last year’s World Championships, the swimmer still rarely speaks of the goal as a whole — and never without prompting.
“You guys talk about it,” he said. “I don’t talk about it. I just get in the water and compete.”
That single-mindedness of purpose makes Phelps a fearsome rival in the pool.
Mentor Bob Bowman, who has coached Phelps since the swimmer was 11 years old, recalls realizing even then that “it was just apparent he was going to do whatever it took.”
Going into his third Olympic Games, Phelps now has not only a fierce competitiveness, but also a solid understanding of how best to harness it.
“In 2004, every race, I would go for it,” Phelps said. “I have been able to learn over the past two years to conserve and try to save up a little bit, because my event program is so long.”
US national team head coach Mark Schubert is impressed by how Phelps is able to do precisely what he has to do in each heat, semi-final or final — as well as in his warm-up and in the warm-down process crucial for recovery.
“He does such a good job of measuring his effort,” Schubert said. “When you see how many events he has to swim and how he swims well in the prelims but not outstanding, he swims a little bit better in the semis — usually always good enough to get one of the center lanes — and then it’s show time. He’s just an exquisite, consistent performer.”
Phelps says he is “more relaxed” heading into Beijing, feeling more prepared for the frenzy that will attend him than he was in Athens.
But he admitted that less than a year before the Games he thought he had ruined his chances when he broke his wrist.
“Having the ups and downs I have had this year, it has been a rocky year, but I am very satisfied with where I am now,” said Phelps, who was hurt when he slipped getting into a car in November.
“I remember when I found out my wrist was broken, I was just devastated. I had no idea what would happen,” said Phelps, adding he felt he “just gave everything away.”
Phelps’s performance at the US trials, with five victories in five events and two world records, showed he had recovered from that setback.
But he and Bowman know how difficult winning seven, let alone eight, gold medals in Beijing will be.
“The odds are very much against it,” Bowman said. “Any number of things can happen. We are going into China and our goal is to have him as fit and as prepared as he can be, then put him out there and see how he goes.”
US teammate Ryan Lochte challenged Phelps in both medleys at the trials. Ian Crocker is the world record-holder in the 100m butterfly.
And France boast a strong sprint relay squad led by 100m free world record-holder Alain Bernard that could deny the Americans in the 4x100m free.
“At the Olympics, it’s going to be harder than it was here,” Phelps said, but then, that is what makes the arduous preparation worthwhile.
“This is the thing I love the most,” Phelps said. “I love to race.”
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